相关论文: Multi-model evidence of future tropical Atlantic p…

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is a major tipping element in the present-day climate, and could potentially collapse under sufficient freshwater or CO2-forcing. While the effect of the Bering Strait on AMOC stability…

Tipping to an undesired state in the climate when a control parameter slowly approaches a critical value is a growing concern with increasing greenhouse gas concentrations. Predictions rely on detecting early warning signals (EWSs) in…

The Amazon rainforest and the AMOC are considered to be tipping elements: they are important components of the Earth system, but may collapse under climate change. Moreover, an AMOC collapse may favor the transition of the rainforest to a…

It is known that global climate models (GCMs) have substantial biases in the surface freshwater flux which forces the ocean component of these models. Using numerical bifurcation analyses on a global ocean model, we study here the effect of…

Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV) describes variations of North Atlantic sea surface temperature with a typical cycle of between 60 and 70 years. AMV strongly impacts local climate over North America and Europe, therefore prediction…

The seasonality of the tropical meridional circulation evolves differently across different regions, governs the onset and retreat of monsoons and migration of tropical precipitation, thereby influencing agricultural productivity and…

The current configuration of the ocean overturning involves upwelling predominantly in the Southern Ocean and sinking predominantly in the Atlantic basin. The reasons for this remain unclear, as both models and paleoclimatic observations…

The global ocean meridional overturning circulation (GMOC) is central for ocean transport and climate variations. However, a comprehensive picture of its historical mean state and variability remains vague due to limitations in modelling…

Key components of the Earth system can undergo abrupt and potentially irreversible transitions when the magnitude or rate of external forcing exceeds critical thresholds. In this study, we use the example of the Atlantic Meridional…

Past research has shown that multiple climate subsystems might undergo abrupt shifts, such as the Arctic Winter sea ice or the Amazon rainforest, but there are large uncertainties regarding their timing and spatial extent. In this study we…

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) and polar ice sheets are coupled tipping elements, allowing for potential cascading tipping events in which tipping is facilitated by their mutual interactions. However, while an AMOC…

Ditlevsen and Ditlevsen [Nature Communications, 2023] (DD23 hereafter) propose a statistical framework to estimate the timing of a potential collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) based on extrapolating…

Vertical motions across the ocean are central to processes, like CO$_2$ fixation, heat removal or pollutant transport, which are essential to the Earth's climate. This work explores 3D conveyor routes {associated with} the Atlantic…

We analyze the source of inter-model scatter in the surface temperature response to quadrupling CO2 in two sets of GCM simulations from the Tropical Rain Belts with an Annual cycle and a Continent Model Intercomparison Project (TRACMIP;…

A defining feature of the present-day global overturning circulation (GOC) is the absence of deep water formation in the Pacific, in contrast to the Atlantic. This asymmetry, associated with higher surface salinities in the North Atlantic,…

This article deals with the investigation of the influence of topography and coastlines on the dynamics of the depth averaged Antarctic Circumpolar Current (ACC), driven by wind and atmospheric pressure. This is achieved with the help of a…

Variations in zonal surface temperature gradients and zonally asymmetric tropical overturning circulations (Walker circulations) are examined over a wide range of climates simulated with an idealized atmospheric general circulation model…

A box model of the inter-hemispheric Atlantic meridional overturning circulation is developed, including a variable pycnocline depth for the tropical and subtropical regions. The circulation is forced by winds over a periodic channel in the…

The Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) is often analyzed using low-order box models to understand tipping points. Historically, these studies focus on freshwater flux as the primary bifurcation parameter, treating the…

We investigate ocean circulation changes through the lens of data assimilation using a reduced-order model. Our primary interest lies in the Stommel box model which reveals itself to be one of the most practicable models that has the…