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We are interested in the estimation of average treatment effects based on right-censored data of an observational study. We focus on causal inference of differences between t-year absolute event risks in a situation with competing risks. We…

Cohort studies of the onset of a disease often encounter left-truncation on the event time of interest in addition to right-censoring due to variable enrollment times of study participants. Analysis of such event time data can be biased if…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-04-11 Spencer Matthews , Bin Nan

Estimating average treatment effects from observational data is challenging under practical violations of the positivity assumption. Targeted Maximum Likelihood Estimators (TMLEs) are widely used because of their double robustness and…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-04-28 Yichen Xu , Susan Gruber , Mark J. van der Laan

This paper extends doubly robust censoring unbiased transformations to a broad class of censored data structures under the assumption of coarsening at random and positivity. This includes the classic survival and competing risks setting,…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-11-08 Oliver Lunding Sandqvist

When treatment effects are naturally expressed as ratios -- as in medicine, pricing, and marketing -- the ratio-based CATE $\tau(x) = E[Y|W=1,X=x] / E[Y|W=0,X=x]$ is the appropriate estimand. Yet existing estimators either impose a…

机器学习 · 统计学 2026-05-27 Michael Fuchs , Dominik Kreiss

In recent years, precision treatment strategy have gained significant attention in medical research, particularly for patient care. We propose a novel framework for estimating conditional average treatment effects (CATE) in time-to-event…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-07-29 Runjia Li , Victor B. Talisa , Chung-Chou H. Chang

Augmented inverse probability weighting and G-computation with canonical generalized linear models have become increasingly popular for estimating average treatment effects (ATEs) in randomized experiments. These methods leverage outcome…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-03-13 Muluneh Alene , Stijn Vansteelandt , Kelly Van Lancker

Adaptive experimentation enables efficient estimation of causal effects, but existing methods are not designed for survival data with censoring, where event times are only partially observed (e.g., overall survival in cancer trials but with…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-05-19 Yuxin Wang , Dennis Frauen , Jonas Schweisthal , Maresa Schröder , Emil Javurek , Stefan Feuerriegel

Unmeasured confounding is a threat to causal inference in observational studies. In recent years, use of negative controls to mitigate unmeasured confounding has gained increasing recognition and popularity. Negative controls have a…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2019-09-05 Xu Shi , Wang Miao , Jennifer C. Nelson , Eric J. Tchetgen Tchetgen

There is a surge in medical follow-up studies that include longitudinal covariates in the modeling of survival data. So far, the focus has been largely on right-censored survival data. We consider survival data that are subject to both left…

统计理论 · 数学 2012-09-25 Yu-Ru Su , Jane-Ling Wang

Drawing causal inferences from observational studies (OS) requires unverifiable validity assumptions; however, one can falsify those assumptions by benchmarking the OS with experimental data from a randomized controlled trial (RCT). A major…

Truncation is a statistical phenomenon that occurs in many time to event studies. For example, autopsy-confirmed studies of neurodegenerative diseases are subject to an inherent left and right truncation, also known as double truncation.…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2018-03-28 Lior Rennert , Sharon X. Xie

We develop a novel approach to partially identify causal estimands, such as the average treatment effect (ATE), from observational data. To better satisfy the stable unit treatment value assumption (SUTVA) we utilize stochastic…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-07-30 Brian Knaeble , Braxton Osting , Placede Tshiaba

Heterogeneous effect estimation plays a crucial role in causal inference, with applications across medicine and social science. Many methods for estimating conditional average treatment effects (CATEs) have been proposed in recent years,…

统计理论 · 数学 2023-08-22 Edward H. Kennedy

Conditional average treatment effects (CATEs) are increasingly estimated from observational data and used to guide policy and individualized treatment decisions. Before such estimates can be trusted in practice, their predictive fitness…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-05-21 Bosen Cui , Yuhong Yang

We consider the problem of constructing bounds on the average treatment effect (ATE) when unmeasured confounders exist but have bounded influence. Specifically, we assume that omitted confounders could not change the odds of treatment for…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-07-25 Jacob Dorn , Kevin Guo , Nathan Kallus

One of the central goals of causal machine learning is the accurate estimation of heterogeneous treatment effects from observational data. In recent years, meta-learning has emerged as a flexible, model-agnostic paradigm for estimating…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2024-11-14 Henri Arno , Paloma Rabaey , Thomas Demeester

The weighted average treatment effect (WATE) defines a versatile class of causal estimands for populations characterized by propensity score weights, including the average treatment effect (ATE), treatment effect on the treated (ATT), on…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-09-23 Yiming Wang , Yi Liu , Shu Yang

Randomization tests and flexible treatment-effect models offer complementary strengths for analyzing data from randomized panel experiments: the former provide valid inference under the known assignment mechanism, while the latter can…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-05-12 Fangnan Zheng , Yao Zhang

For observational studies, we study the sensitivity of causal inference when treatment assignments may depend on unobserved confounders. We develop a loss minimization approach for estimating bounds on the conditional average treatment…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-03-11 Steve Yadlowsky , Hongseok Namkoong , Sanjay Basu , John Duchi , Lu Tian