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We study the properties of macroeconomic survey forecast response averages as the number of survey respondents grows. Such averages are ``portfolios" of forecasts. We characterize the speed and pattern of the gains from diversification as a…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2026-02-24 Francis X. Diebold , Aaron Mora , Minchul Shin

We propose ImitSAT, a branching policy for conflict-driven clause learning (CDCL) solvers based on imitation learning for the Boolean satisfiability problem (SAT). Unlike previous methods that predict instance-level signals to improve CDCL…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2026-02-24 Zewei Zhang , Huan Liu , Yuanhao Yu , Jun Chen , Xiangyu Xu

Standard conformal prediction methods provide a marginal coverage guarantee, which means that for a random test point, the conformal prediction set contains the true label with a user-specified probability. In many classification problems,…

Methods for split conformal prediction leverage calibration samples to transform any prediction rule into a set-prediction rule that complies with a target coverage probability. Existing methods provide remarkably strong performance…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-10-15 Santiago Mazuelas

Sparse regression is frequently employed in diverse scientific settings as a feature selection method. A pervasive aspect of scientific data that hampers both feature selection and estimation is the presence of strong correlations between…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-03-25 Ankit Kumar , Sharmodeep Bhattacharyya , Kristofer Bouchard

Many difficult computational problems involve the simultaneous satisfaction of multiple constraints which are individually easy to satisfy. Such problems occur in diffractive imaging, protein folding, constrained optimization (e.g., spin…

计算物理 · 物理学 2008-10-01 Simon Gravel , Veit Elser

This paper focuses on finding suitable features to robustly recognize emotions and evaluate customer satisfaction from speech in real acoustic scenarios. The classification of emotions is based on standard and well-known corpora and the…

声音 · 计算机科学 2021-08-30 Luis Felipe Parra-Gallego , Juan Rafael Orozco-Arroyave

Much of the recent work on random constraint satisfaction problems has been inspired by ingenious but non-rigorous approaches from physics. The physics predictions typically come in the form of distributional fixed point problems that are…

概率论 · 数学 2015-10-08 Victor Bapst , Amin Coja-Oghlan

Surveys are an important research tool, providing unique measurements on subjective experiences such as sentiment and opinions that cannot be measured by other means. However, because survey data is collected from a self-selected group of…

统计计算 · 统计学 2023-07-14 Tal Sarig , Tal Galili , Roee Eilat

Conformal Prediction (CP) is a popular method for uncertainty quantification that converts a pretrained model's point prediction into a prediction set, with the set size reflecting the model's confidence. Although existing CP methods are…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-08-18 Shuqi Liu , Jianguo Huang , Luke Ong

Conformal prediction constructs a confidence set for an unobserved response of a feature vector based on previous identically distributed and exchangeable observations of responses and features. It has a coverage guarantee at any nominal…

机器学习 · 统计学 2022-12-08 Eugene Ndiaye , Ichiro Takeuchi

We study user sentiment (reported via optional surveys) as a metric for fully randomized A/B tests. Both user-level covariates and treatment assignment can impact response propensity. We propose a set of consistent estimators for the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2019-06-27 Ercan Yildiz , Joshua Safyan , Marc Harper

Computerized Adaptive Testing (CAT) is a widely used, efficient test mode that adapts to the examinee's proficiency level in the test domain. CAT requires pre-trained item profiles, for CAT iteratively assesses the student real-time based…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-03-12 Soonwoo Kwon , Sojung Kim , Seunghyun Lee , Jin-Young Kim , Suyeong An , Kyuseok Kim

Chart question answering (CQA) is a task used for assessing chart comprehension, which is fundamentally different from understanding natural images. CQA requires analyzing the relationships between the textual and the visual components of a…

计算机视觉与模式识别 · 计算机科学 2022-07-12 Matan Levy , Rami Ben-Ari , Dani Lischinski

Cumulative prospect theory (CPT) is known to model human decisions well, with substantial empirical evidence supporting this claim. CPT works by distorting probabilities and is more general than the classic expected utility and coherent…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2016-03-01 Prashanth L. A. , Cheng Jie , Michael Fu , Steve Marcus , Csaba Szepesvári

The usage of machine learning methods in traditional surveys including official statistics, is still very limited. Therefore, we propose a predictor supported by these algorithms, which can be used to predict any population or subpopulation…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-07-14 Tomasz Żądło , Adam Chwila

Background: The trend towards large-scale studies including population imaging poses new challenges in terms of quality control (QC). This is a particular issue when automatic processing tools, e.g. image segmentation methods, are employed…

Counterfactual explanations are a widely used approach in Explainable AI, offering actionable insights into decision-making by illustrating how small changes to input data can lead to different outcomes. Despite their importance, evaluating…

人机交互 · 计算机科学 2025-04-22 Marharyta Domnich , Rasmus Moorits Veski , Julius Välja , Kadi Tulver , Raul Vicente

Multi-Span Question Answering (MSQA) requires models to extract one or multiple answer spans from a given context to answer a question. Prior work mainly focuses on designing specific methods or applying heuristic strategies to encourage…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2024-10-23 Jiayi Lin , Chenyang Zhang , Haibo Tong , Dongyu Zhang , Qingqing Hong , Bingxuan Hou , Junli Wang

Precision and Recall are fundamental metrics in machine learning tasks where both accurate predictions and comprehensive coverage are essential, such as in multi-label learning, language generation, medical studies, and recommender systems.…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-10-27 Lee Cohen , Yishay Mansour , Shay Moran , Han Shao