相关论文: A model-free test of the time-reversibility of cli…

Time irreversibility, defined as the lack of invariance of the statistical properties of a system or time series under the operation of time reversal, has received an increasing attention during the last decades, thanks to the information…

Study of recurrences in earthquakes, climate, financial time-series, etc. is crucial to better forecast disasters and limit their consequences. However, almost all the previous phenomenological studies involved only a long-ranged…

The absence of time-reversal symmetry is a fundamental property of many nonlinear time series. Here, we propose a new set of statistical tests for time series irreversibility based on standard and horizontal visibility graphs. Specifically,…

This paper proposes strategies to detect time reversibility in stationary stochastic processes by using the properties of mixed causal and noncausal models. It shows that they can also be used for non-stationary processes when the trend…

An approach is proposed to determine structural shift in time-series assuming non-linear dependence of lagged values of dependent variable. Copulas are used to model non-linear dependence of time series components.

Among existing subgrid scale models for large-eddy simulation (LES) some are time-reversible in the sense that the dynamics evolve backwards in time after a transformation $\bm u \rightarrow -\bm u$ at every point in space. In practice,…

Time irreversibility is a common signature of nonlinear processes, and a fundamental property of non-equilibrium systems driven by non-conservative forces. A time series is said to be reversible if its statistical properties are invariant…

This paper provides insight into when, why, and how forecast strategies fail when they are applied to complicated time series. We conjecture that the inherent complexity of real-world time-series data---which results from the dimension,…

This paper proposes a model-free nonparametric estimator of conditional quantile of a time series regression model where the covariate vector is repeated many times for different values of the response. This type of data is abound in…

Different disciplines pursue the aim to develop models which characterize certain phenomena as accurately as possible. Climatology is a prime example, where the temporal evolution of the climate is modeled. In order to compare and improve…

This paper is concerned with modeling the dependence structure of two (or more) time-series in the presence of a (possible multivariate) covariate which may include past values of the time series. We assume that the covariate influences…

Risk evaluation is a forecast, and its validity must be backtested. Probability distribution forecasts are used in this work and allow for more powerful validations compared to point forecasts. Our aim is to use bivariate copulas in order…

Quantifying irreversibility of a system using finite information constitutes a major challenge in stochastic thermodynamics. We introduce an observable that measures the time-reversal asymmetry between two states after a given time lag. Our…

In conditional copula models, the copula parameter is deterministically linked to a covariate via the calibration function. The latter is of central interest for inference and is usually estimated nonparametrically. However, when a…

The issue of model selection in applied research is of vital importance. Since the true model in such research is not known, which model should be used from among various potential ones is an empirical question. There might exist several…

We consider the structural change in a class of discrete valued time series that the conditional distribution follows a one-parameter exponential family. We propose a change-point test based on the maximum likelihood estimator of the…

The success of large-scale models in recent years has increased the importance of statistical models with numerous parameters. Several studies have analyzed over-parameterized linear models with high-dimensional data, which may not be…

Irreversibility is commonly quantified by entropy production. An external observer can estimate it through measuring an observable that is antisymmetric under time-reversal like a current. We introduce a general framework that, inter alia,…

Most of the literature on change-point analysis by means of hypothesis testing considers hypotheses of the form H0 : \theta_1 = \theta_2 vs. H1 : \theta_1 != \theta_2, where \theta_1 and \theta_2 denote parameters of the process before and…

We propose a new copula model for replicated multivariate spatial data. Unlike classical models that assume multivariate normality of the data, the proposed copula is based on the assumption that some factors exist that affect the joint…