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Causal discovery and causal effect estimation are two fundamental tasks in causal inference. While many methods have been developed for each task individually, statistical challenges arise when applying these methods jointly: estimating…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-08-21 Paula Gradu , Tijana Zrnic , Yixin Wang , Michael I. Jordan

Causal queries are often only partially identifiable from observational data, and experiments that could tighten the resulting bounds are typically costly. We study the problem of selecting, prior to observing experimental outcomes, a…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2026-05-11 Tobias Maringgele , Jalal Etesami

Bipartite experiments are a recent object of study in causal inference, whereby treatment is applied to one set of units and outcomes of interest are measured on a different set of units. These experiments are particularly useful in…

This work extends causal inference with stochastic confounders. We propose a new approach to variational estimation for causal inference based on a representer theorem with a random input space. We estimate causal effects involving latent…

机器学习 · 统计学 2021-01-26 Thanh Vinh Vo , Pengfei Wei , Wicher Bergsma , Tze-Yun Leong

The paper introduces a generalization for known probabilistic models such as log-linear and graphical models, called here multiplicative models. These models, that express probabilities via product of parameters are shown to capture…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2012-06-18 Ydo Wexler , Christopher Meek

This tutorial provides a concise introduction to modern causal modeling by integrating potential outcomes and graphical methods. We motivate causal questions such as counterfactual reasoning under interventions and define binary treatments…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-06-27 Gauranga Kumar Baishya

Substantial advances in Bayesian methods for causal inference have been developed in recent years. We provide an introduction to Bayesian inference for causal effects for practicing statisticians who have some familiarity with Bayesian…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-12-12 Arman Oganisian , Jason A. Roy

The past decade has seen an increasing body of literature devoted to the estimation of causal effects in network-dependent data. However, the validity of many classical statistical methods in such data is often questioned. There is an…

统计计算 · 统计学 2017-05-31 Oleg Sofrygin , Romain Neugebauer , Mark J. van der Laan

We present a general causal generative modelling framework for accurate estimation of high fidelity image counterfactuals with deep structural causal models. Estimation of interventional and counterfactual queries for high-dimensional…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-07-19 Fabio De Sousa Ribeiro , Tian Xia , Miguel Monteiro , Nick Pawlowski , Ben Glocker

We consider the problem of estimating a large causal polytree from a relatively small i.i.d. sample. This is motivated by the problem of determining causal structure when the number of variables is very large compared to the sample size,…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-08-20 Sourav Chatterjee , Mathukumalli Vidyasagar

We study causal effect estimation from a mixture of observational and interventional data in a confounded linear regression model with multivariate treatments. We show that the statistical efficiency in terms of expected squared error can…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-07-03 Klaus-Rudolf Kladny , Julius von Kügelgen , Bernhard Schölkopf , Michael Muehlebach

While graphs and abstract data structures can be large and complex, practical instances are often regular or highly structured. If the instance has sufficient structure, we might hope to compress the object into a more succinct…

计算复杂性 · 计算机科学 2024-12-02 Shreya Gupta , Boyang Huang , Russell Impagliazzo , Stanley Woo , Christopher Ye

Causal inference methods for observational data are increasingly recognized as a valuable complement to randomized clinical trials (RCTs). They can, under strong assumptions, emulate RCTs or help refine their focus. Our approach to causal…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-08-14 Carlo Berzuini , Davide Luciani , Hiren C. Patel

Traditionally, statistical and causal inference on human subjects rely on the assumption that individuals are independently affected by treatments or exposures. However, recently there has been increasing interest in settings, such as…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-02-25 Elizabeth L. Ogburn , Ilya Shpitser , Youjin Lee

Most research questions in agricultural and applied economics are of a causal nature, i.e., how one or more variables (e.g., policies, prices, the weather) affect one or more other variables (e.g., income, crop yields, pollution). Only some…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2025-08-05 Arne Henningsen , Guy Low , David Wuepper , Tobias Dalhaus , Hugo Storm , Dagim Belay , Stefan Hirsch

A structural causal model is made of endogenous (manifest) and exogenous (latent) variables. We show that endogenous observations induce linear constraints on the probabilities of the exogenous variables. This allows to exactly map a causal…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2020-08-04 Marco Zaffalon , Alessandro Antonucci , Rafael Cabañas

We provide a comprehensive review of causal dependence through a max-linear structural equation model. Such models express each node variable as a max-linear function of its parental node variables in a directed acyclic graph and some…

风险管理 · 定量金融 2025-09-29 Claudia Klüppelberg , Mario Krali

Long-term causal inference has drawn increasing attention in many scientific domains. Existing methods mainly focus on estimating average long-term causal effects by combining long-term observational data and short-term experimental data.…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-03-04 Weilin Chen , Ruichu Cai , Junjie Wan , Zeqin Yang , José Miguel Hernández-Lobato

Obtaining a non-parametric expression for an interventional distribution is one of the most fundamental tasks in causal inference. Such an expression can be obtained for an identifiable causal effect by an algorithm or by manual application…

机器学习 · 统计学 2018-06-20 Santtu Tikka , Juha Karvanen

When domain knowledge is limited and experimentation is restricted by ethical, financial, or time constraints, practitioners turn to observational causal discovery methods to recover the causal structure, exploiting the statistical…