相关论文: Local vs. Global Models for Hierarchical Forecasti…

Time series forecasting has played a pivotal role across various industries, including finance, transportation, energy, healthcare, and climate. Due to the abundant seasonal information they contain, timestamps possess the potential to…

Existing hierarchical forecasting techniques scale poorly when the number of time series increases. We propose to learn a coherent forecast for millions of time series with a single bottom-level forecast model by using a sparse loss…

In prognostics and health management (PHM) of engineered systems, maintenance decisions are ideally informed by predictions of a system's remaining useful life (RUL) based on operational data. Model-based prognostics algorithms rely on a…

Reliable wind speed data is crucial for applications such as estimating local (future) wind power. Global Climate Models (GCMs) and Regional Climate Models (RCMs) provide forecasts over multi-decadal periods. However, their outputs vary…

Time series data is being used everywhere, from sales records to patients' health evolution metrics. The ability to deal with this data has become a necessity, and time series analysis and forecasting are used for the same. Every Machine…

Machine learning (ML) based time series forecasting models often require and assume certain degrees of stationarity in the data when producing forecasts. However, in many real-world situations, the data distributions are not stationary and…

The explosion of Time Series (TS) data, driven by advancements in technology, necessitates sophisticated analytical methods. Modern management systems increasingly rely on analyzing this data, highlighting the importance of effcient…

Graphical forecasting models learn the structure of time series data via projecting onto a graph, with recent techniques capturing spatial-temporal associations between variables via edge weights. Hierarchical variants offer a distinct…

Multivariate time series forecasting with hierarchical structure is pervasive in real-world applications, demanding not only predicting each level of the hierarchy, but also reconciling all forecasts to ensure coherency, i.e., the forecasts…

Time series forecasting is crucial in several sectors, such as meteorology, retail, healthcare, and finance. Accurately forecasting future trends and patterns is crucial for strategic planning and making well-informed decisions. In this…

In economics and many other forecasting domains, the real world problems are too complex for a single model that assumes a specific data generation process. The forecasting performance of different methods changes depending on the nature of…

Geospatial Foundation Models (GFMs) have emerged as powerful tools for extracting representations from Earth observation data, but their evaluation remains inconsistent and narrow. Existing works often evaluate on suboptimal downstream…

Forecasters often use common information and hence make common mistakes. We propose a new approach, Factor Graphical Model (FGM), to forecast combinations that separates idiosyncratic forecast errors from the common errors. FGM exploits the…

The standard regression tree method applied to observations within clusters poses both methodological and implementation challenges. Effectively leveraging these data requires methods that account for both individual-level and sample-level…

Time series forecasting is essential for operational intelligence in the hospitality industry, and particularly challenging in large-scale, distributed systems. This study evaluates the performance of statistical, machine learning (ML),…

Graph Neural Networks (GNN) have gained significant traction in the forecasting domain, especially for their capacity to simultaneously account for intra-series temporal correlations and inter-series relationships. This paper introduces a…

Stochastic ground motion models (GMMs) are gaining popularity and momentum among engineers to perform time-history analysis of structures and infrastructures. This paper aims to review and validate hierarchical stochastic GMMs, with a focus…

In this study, we focus on the development and implementation of a comprehensive ensemble of numerical time series forecasting models, collectively referred to as the Group of Numerical Time Series Prediction Model (G-NM). This inclusive…

In this paper, we first propose a Bayesian neighborhood selection method to estimate Gaussian Graphical Models (GGMs). We show the graph selection consistency of this method in the sense that the posterior probability of the true model…

Accurate electricity demand forecasts play a crucial role in sustainable power systems. To enable better decision-making especially for demand flexibility of the end-user, it is necessary to provide not only accurate but also understandable…