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Bivariate causal direction identification is a fundamental and vital problem in the causal inference field. Among binary causal methods, most methods based on additive noise only use one single causal mechanism to construct a causal model.…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2025-07-30 Saixiong Liu , Yuhua Qian , Jue Li , Honghong Cheng , Feijiang Li

Bayesian causal discovery aims to infer the posterior distribution over causal models from observed data, quantifying epistemic uncertainty and benefiting downstream tasks. However, computational challenges arise due to joint inference over…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-12-11 Yashas Annadani , Nick Pawlowski , Joel Jennings , Stefan Bauer , Cheng Zhang , Wenbo Gong

Understanding which parts of a dynamical system cause each other is extremely relevant in fundamental and applied sciences. However, inferring causal links from observational data, namely without direct manipulations of the system, is still…

数据分析、统计与概率 · 物理学 2025-06-27 Matteo Allione , Vittorio Del Tatto , Alessandro Laio

For decades, researchers in fields, such as the natural and social sciences, have been verifying causal relationships and investigating hypotheses that are now well-established or understood as truth. These causal mechanisms are properties…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2019-12-02 Trent Kyono , Mihaela van der Schaar

When dealing with time series data, causal inference methods often employ structural vector autoregressive (SVAR) processes to model time-evolving random systems. In this work, we rephrase recursive SVAR processes with possible latent…

统计理论 · 数学 2024-08-19 Nicolas-Domenic Reiter , Andreas Gerhardus , Jonas Wahl , Jakob Runge

Generative Bayesian Computation (GBC) methods are developed for Casual Inference. Generative methods are simulation-based methods that use a large training dataset to represent posterior distributions as a map (a.k.a. optimal transport) to…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-12-25 Maria Nareklishvili , Nicholas Polson , Vadim Sokolov

Time series generation (TSG) synthesizes realistic sequences and has achieved remarkable success. Among TSG, conditional models generate sequences given observed covariates, however, such models learn observational correlations without…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-05-15 Yutong Xia , Chang Xu , Yuxuan Liang , Li Zhao , Qingsong Wen , Roger Zimmermann , Jiang Bian

We introduce a novel framework for temporal causal discovery and inference that addresses two key challenges: complex nonlinear dependencies and spurious correlations. Our approach employs a multi-layer Transformer-based time-series…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-08-25 Jihua Huang , Yi Yao , Ajay Divakaran

Estimating causal interactions in complex dynamical systems is an important problem encountered in many fields of current science. While a theoretical solution for detecting the causal interactions has been previously formulated in the…

数据分析、统计与概率 · 物理学 2020-01-20 Jakub Kořenek , Jaroslav Hlinka

This paper studies causal discovery in irregularly sampled time series-a key challenge in risk-sensitive domains like finance, healthcare, and climate science, where missing data and inconsistent sampling frequencies distort causal…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-05-12 Weihong Li , Baohong Li , Anpeng Wu , Zhihan Li , Ming Ma , Keting Yin , Kun Kuang

This paper studies Time Series Extrinsic Regression (TSER): a regression task of which the aim is to learn the relationship between a time series and a continuous scalar variable; a task closely related to time series classification (TSC),…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-02-04 Chang Wei Tan , Christoph Bergmeir , Francois Petitjean , Geoffrey I. Webb

This paper introduces a novel framework for optimizing observer-based soft sensors through dynamic causality analysis. Traditional approaches to sensor selection often rely on linearized observability indices or statistical correlations…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2025-09-16 William Farlessyost , Sebastian Oberst , Shweta Singh

Agent-Based Model (ABM) validation is crucial as it helps ensuring the reliability of simulations, and causal discovery has become a powerful tool in this context. However, current causal discovery methods often face accuracy and robustness…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-02-24 Gene Yu , Ce Guo , Wayne Luk

We introduce computational causal inference as an interdisciplinary field across causal inference, algorithms design and numerical computing. The field aims to develop software specializing in causal inference that can analyze massive…

统计计算 · 统计学 2020-07-22 Jeffrey C. Wong

Clustering is an unsupervised learning technique that is useful when working with a large volume of unlabeled data. Complex dynamical systems in real life often entail data streaming from a large number of sources. Although it is desirable…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-05-20 Sin Yong Tan , Homagni Saha , Margarite Jacoby , Gregor P. Henze , Soumik Sarkar

Traditional machine learning and deep learning techniques rely on correlation-based learning, often failing to distinguish spurious associations from true causal relationships, which limits robustness, interpretability, and…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-03-05 Emam Hossain , Muhammad Hasan Ferdous , Jianwu Wang , Aneesh Subramanian , Md Osman Gani

Clustering high-dimensional spatiotemporal data using an unsupervised approach is a challenging problem for many data-driven applications. Existing state-of-the-art methods for unsupervised clustering use different similarity and distance…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-09-15 Omar Faruque , Francis Ndikum Nji , Mostafa Cham , Rohan Mandar Salvi , Xue Zheng , Jianwu Wang

Change point detection in time series aims to identify moments when the probability distribution of time series changes. It is widely applied in many areas, such as human activity sensing and medical science. In the context of multivariate…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-07-15 Shanyun Gao , Raghavendra Addanki , Tong Yu , Ryan A. Rossi , Murat Kocaoglu

The present study explores the intricacies of causal relationship extraction, a vital component in the pursuit of causality knowledge. Causality is frequently intertwined with temporal elements, as the progression from cause to effect is…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2023-04-24 Xiaosong Yuan , Ke Chen , Wanli Zuo , Yijia Zhang

Causal discovery is at the core of human cognition. It enables us to reason about the environment and make counterfactual predictions about unseen scenarios that can vastly differ from our previous experiences. We consider the task of…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2020-12-01 Yunzhu Li , Antonio Torralba , Animashree Anandkumar , Dieter Fox , Animesh Garg