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Solving Bayesian inference problems approximately with variational approaches can provide fast and accurate results. Capturing correlation within the approximation requires an explicit parametrization. This intrinsically limits this…

机器学习 · 统计学 2020-01-31 Jakob Knollmüller , Torsten A. Enßlin

Bayesian calibration of black-box computer models offers an established framework to obtain a posterior distribution over model parameters. Traditional Bayesian calibration involves the emulation of the computer model and an additive model…

机器学习 · 统计学 2018-10-30 Sébastien Marmin , Maurizio Filippone

Black box variational inference (BBVI) with reparameterization gradients triggered the exploration of divergence measures other than the Kullback-Leibler (KL) divergence, such as alpha divergences. In this paper, we view BBVI with…

机器学习 · 统计学 2018-01-09 Robert Bamler , Cheng Zhang , Manfred Opper , Stephan Mandt

Variational approximation has been widely used in large-scale Bayesian inference recently, the simplest kind of which involves imposing a mean field assumption to approximate complicated latent structures. Despite the computational…

统计理论 · 数学 2019-05-21 Purnamrita Sarkar , Y. X. Rachel Wang , Soumendu Sundar Mukherjee

Variational Bayes methods are popular due to their computational efficiency and adaptability to diverse applications. In specifying the variational family, mean-field classes are commonly used, which enables efficient algorithms such as…

统计理论 · 数学 2025-11-26 Shitao Fan , Ilsang Ohn , David Dunson , Lizhen Lin

The spatial error model (SEM) is a type of simultaneous autoregressive (SAR) model for analysing spatially correlated data. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) is one of the most widely used Bayesian methods for estimating SEM, but it has…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-06-14 Anjana Wijayawardhana , David Gunawan , Thomas Suesse

Stochastic planning can be reduced to probabilistic inference in large discrete graphical models, but hardness of inference requires approximation schemes to be used. In this paper we argue that such applications can be disentangled along…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2022-09-05 Zhennan Wu , Roni Khardon

We introduce a highly expressive yet distinctly tractable family for black-box variational inference (BBVI). Each member of this family is a weighted product of experts (PoE), and each weighted expert in the product is proportional to a…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-10-27 Diana Cai , Robert M. Gower , David M. Blei , Lawrence K. Saul

We study a mean-field spike and slab variational Bayes (VB) approximation to Bayesian model selection priors in sparse high-dimensional linear regression. Under compatibility conditions on the design matrix, oracle inequalities are derived…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-11-20 Kolyan Ray , Botond Szabo

Modern neural network architectures have achieved remarkable accuracies but remain highly dependent on their training data, often lacking interpretability in their learned mappings. While effective on large datasets, they tend to overfit on…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-03-19 Pavia Bera , Sanjukta Bhanja

Geoscientists use observed data to estimate properties of the Earth's interior. This often requires non-linear inverse problems to be solved and uncertainties to be estimated. Bayesian inference solves inverse problems under a probabilistic…

地球物理 · 物理学 2024-01-01 Xuebin Zhao , Andrew Curtis

Variational inference is a fast and scalable alternative to Markov chain Monte Carlo and has been widely applied to posterior inference tasks in statistics and machine learning. A traditional approach for implementing mean-field variational…

统计理论 · 数学 2026-01-01 Qiang Du , Kaizheng Wang , Edith Zhang , Chenyang Zhong

Current variational inference methods for hierarchical Bayesian nonparametric models can neither characterize the correlation structure among latent variables due to the mean-field setting, nor infer the true posterior dimension because of…

机器学习 · 统计学 2022-04-07 Yirui Liu , Xinghao Qiao , Jessica Lam

Black Box Variational Inference is a promising framework in a succession of recent efforts to make Variational Inference more ``black box". However, in basic version it either fails to converge due to instability or requires some…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-05-10 Dominic B. Dayta

A framework is presented for fitting inverse problem models via variational Bayes approximations. This methodology guarantees flexibility to statistical model specification for a broad range of applications, good accuracy and reduced model…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-09-05 Luca Maestrini , Robert G. Aykroyd , Matt P. Wand

Black-box alpha (BB-$\alpha$) is a new approximate inference method based on the minimization of $\alpha$-divergences. BB-$\alpha$ scales to large datasets because it can be implemented using stochastic gradient descent. BB-$\alpha$ can be…

Variational inference has become a widely used method to approximate posteriors in complex latent variables models. However, deriving a variational inference algorithm generally requires significant model-specific analysis, and these…

机器学习 · 统计学 2014-01-03 Rajesh Ranganath , Sean Gerrish , David M. Blei

As a computational alternative to Markov chain Monte Carlo approaches, variational inference (VI) is becoming more and more popular for approximating intractable posterior distributions in large-scale Bayesian models due to its comparable…

机器学习 · 统计学 2023-06-05 Anirban Bhattacharya , Debdeep Pati , Yun Yang

Variational inference (VI) is a popular method for approximating intractable posterior distributions in Bayesian inference and probabilistic machine learning. In this paper, we introduce a general framework for quantifying the statistical…

统计理论 · 数学 2025-07-18 Chenyang Zhong , Sumit Mukherjee , Bodhisattva Sen

The steady-state Bayesian vector autoregression (BVAR) makes it possible to incorporate prior information about the long-run mean of the process. This has been shown in many studies to substantially improve forecasting performance, and the…

统计计算 · 统计学 2025-06-12 Oskar Gustafsson , Mattias Villani