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Bayesian doubly robust (DR) causal inference faces a fundamental dilemma: joint modeling of outcome and propensity score suffers from the feedback problem where outcome information contaminates propensity score estimation, while two-step…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-01-05 Shunichiro Orihara , Tomotaka Momozaki , Shonosuke Sugasawa

The Dirichlet process mixture (DPM) is a ubiquitous, flexible Bayesian nonparametric statistical model. However, full probabilistic inference in this model is analytically intractable, so that computationally intensive techniques such as…

机器学习 · 统计学 2014-11-05 Yordan P. Raykov , Alexis Boukouvalas , Max A. Little

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methods perform inference on model-specific parameters of mechanistically motivated parametric statistical models when evaluating likelihoods is difficult. Central to the success of ABC methods is…

统计计算 · 统计学 2013-01-29 Erkan O. Buzbas , Noah A. Rosenberg

Scientific experiments are usually expensive due to complex experimental preparation and processing. Experimental design is therefore involved with the task of finding the optimal experimental input that results in the desirable output by…

机器学习 · 统计学 2020-02-27 Cheng Li , Sunil Gupta , Santu Rana , Vu Nguyen , Antonio Robles-Kelly , Svetha Venkatesh

One of the main approaches used to construct prior distributions for objective Bayes methods is the concept of random imaginary observations. Under this setup, the expected-posterior prior (EPP) offers several advantages, among which it has…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-10-09 Dimitris Fouskakis , Ioannis Ntzoufras

Learning in POMDPs is known to be significantly harder than in MDPs. In this paper, we consider the online learning problem for episodic POMDPs with unknown transition and observation models. We propose a Posterior Sampling-based…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-10-24 Dengwang Tang , Dongze Ye , Rahul Jain , Ashutosh Nayyar , Pierluigi Nuzzo

We develop methods for efficient amortized approximate Bayesian inference over posterior distributions of probabilistic clustering models, such as Dirichlet process mixture models. The approach is based on mapping distributed,…

机器学习 · 统计学 2018-11-27 Ari Pakman , Liam Paninski

Exponential random graph models are an important tool in the statistical analysis of data. However, Bayesian parameter estimation for these models is extremely challenging, since evaluation of the posterior distribution typically involves…

统计计算 · 统计学 2017-05-05 Lampros Bouranis , Nial Friel , Florian Maire

In preference-based reinforcement learning (RL), an agent interacts with the environment while receiving preferences instead of absolute feedback. While there is increasing research activity in preference-based RL, the design of formal…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2020-06-30 Ellen R. Novoseller , Yibing Wei , Yanan Sui , Yisong Yue , Joel W. Burdick

The analysis of data from multiple experiments, such as observations of several individuals, is commonly approached using mixed-effects models, which account for variation between individuals through hierarchical representations. This makes…

统计计算 · 统计学 2026-03-05 Henrik Häggström , Sebastian Persson , Marija Cvijovic , Umberto Picchini

This paper introduces a Bayesian inference framework for incomplete structural models, termed distribution-matching posterior inference (DMPI). Extending the minimal econometric interpretation (MEI), DMPI constructs a divergence-based…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2026-01-06 Takashi Kano

The paper presents a scheme for computing lower and upper bounds on the posterior marginals in Bayesian networks with discrete variables. Its power lies in its ability to use any available scheme that bounds the probability of evidence or…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2014-01-17 Bozhena Bidyuk , Rina Dechter , Emma Rollon

Multiple imputation has become one of the standard methods in drawing inferences in many incomplete data applications. Applications of multiple imputation in relatively more complex settings, such as high-dimensional clustered data, require…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-04-08 Qiushuang Li , Recai Yucel

We develop a fast and scalable computational framework to solve large-scale and high-dimensional Bayesian optimal experimental design problems. In particular, we consider the problem of optimal observation sensor placement for Bayesian…

数值分析 · 数学 2020-11-09 Keyi Wu , Peng Chen , Omar Ghattas

Learning a sequence of tasks without access to i.i.d. observations is a widely studied form of continual learning (CL) that remains challenging. In principle, Bayesian learning directly applies to this setting, since recursive and one-off…

Diffusion models (DMs) have proven to be effective in modeling high-dimensional distributions, leading to their widespread adoption for representing complex priors in Bayesian inverse problems (BIPs). However, current DM-based posterior…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-06-06 Haoxuan Chen , Yinuo Ren , Martin Renqiang Min , Lexing Ying , Zachary Izzo

Parameter inference is a fundamental problem in data-driven modeling. Given observed data that is believed to be a realization of some parameterized model, the aim is to find parameter values that are able to explain the observed data. In…

数据结构与算法 · 计算机科学 2016-04-20 Carlo Albert , Simone Ulzega , Ruedi Stoop

Estimating the predictive uncertainty of a Bayesian learning model is critical in various decision-making problems, e.g., reinforcement learning, detecting adversarial attack, self-driving car. As the model posterior is almost always…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-02-16 Yufei Cui , Wuguannan Yao , Qiao Li , Antoni B. Chan , Chun Jason Xue

Simulation-Based Inference (SBI) is a promising Bayesian inference framework that alleviates the need for analytic likelihoods to estimate posterior distributions. Recent advances using neural density estimators in SBI algorithms have…

天体物理仪器与方法 · 物理学 2022-07-13 Justine Zeghal , François Lanusse , Alexandre Boucaud , Benjamin Remy , Eric Aubourg

Learning meaningful representations of data that can address challenges such as batch effect correction and counterfactual inference is a central problem in many domains including computational biology. Adopting a Conditional VAE framework,…

机器学习 · 统计学 2022-06-28 Adam Foster , Árpi Vezér , Craig A Glastonbury , Páidí Creed , Sam Abujudeh , Aaron Sim