相关论文: BI-EqNO: Generalized Approximate Bayesian Inferenc…

Simulation-based inference (SBI) offers a flexible and general approach to performing Bayesian inference: In SBI, a neural network is trained on synthetic data simulated from a model and used to rapidly infer posterior distributions for…

Accuracy and generalization capabilities are key objectives when learning dynamical system models. To obtain such models from limited data, current works exploit prior knowledge and assumptions about the system. However, the fusion of…

We propose the application of iterative regularization for the development of ensemble methods for solving Bayesian inverse problems. In concrete, we construct (i) a variational iterative regularizing ensemble Levenberg-Marquardt method…

Gaussian Processes (GPs) are powerful kernelized methods for non-parameteric regression used in many applications. However, their use is limited to a few thousand of training samples due to their cubic time complexity. In order to scale GPs…

Design optimization under uncertainty is notoriously difficult when the objective function is expensive to evaluate. State-of-the-art techniques, e.g, stochastic optimization or sampling average approximation, fail to learn exploitable…

The willingness to trust predictions formulated by automatic algorithms is key in a vast number of domains. However, a vast number of deep architectures are only able to formulate predictions without an associated uncertainty. In this…

We introduce a Bayesian framework for inference with a supervised version of the Gaussian process latent variable model. The framework overcomes the high correlations between latent variables and hyperparameters by using an unbiased pseudo…

The Bootstrap Particle Filter (BPF) and the Ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) are two widely used methods for sequential Bayesian filtering: the BPF is asymptotically exact but can suffer from weight degeneracy, while the EnKF scales well in…

Bayesian inference provides a flexible way of combining data with prior information. However, quantile regression is not equipped with a parametric likelihood, and therefore, Bayesian inference for quantile regression demands careful…

We present a scalable and robust Bayesian inference method for linear state space models. The method is applied to demand forecasting in the context of a large e-commerce platform, paying special attention to intermittent and bursty target…

We begin by reiterating that common neural network activation functions have simple Bayesian origins. In this spirit, we go on to show that Bayes's theorem also implies a simple recurrence relation; this leads to a Bayesian recurrent unit…

Bayesian optimization (BO) has established itself as a leading strategy for efficiently optimizing expensive-to-evaluate functions. Existing BO methods mostly rely on Gaussian process (GP) surrogate models and are not applicable to…

We describe different Bayesian ensemble refinement methods, examine their interrelation, and discuss their practical application. With ensemble refinement, the properties of dynamic and partially disordered (bio)molecular structures can be…

Latent variable time-series models are among the most heavily used tools from machine learning and applied statistics. These models have the advantage of learning latent structure both from noisy observations and from the temporal ordering…

We present a novel model architecture which leverages deep learning tools to perform exact Bayesian inference on sets of high dimensional, complex observations. Our model is provably exchangeable, meaning that the joint distribution over…

Fractional diffusion equations have been an effective tool for modeling anomalous diffusion in complicated systems. However, traditional numerical methods require expensive computation cost and storage resources because of the memory effect…

Bayesian (deep) neural networks (BNN) are often more attractive than the vanilla point-estimate deep learning in various aspects including uncertainty quantification, robustness to noise, resistance to overfitting, and more. The variational…

We propose a simple approach that provides accurate uncertainty quantification for Bayesian inference in misspecified or approximate models, and for generalized (Gibbs) posteriors. While existing solutions in this context are based on…

Several indices used in a factor graph data structure can be permuted without changing the underlying probability distribution. An algorithm that performs inference on a factor graph should ideally be equivariant or invariant to…

In many real-world applications of regression, conditional probability estimation, and uncertainty quantification, exploiting symmetries rooted in physics or geometry can dramatically improve generalization and sample efficiency. While…