相关论文: Bayesian Calibration and Uncertainty Quantificatio…

To improve the theoretical prediction power for synthesizing superheavy elements beyond Og, a Bayesian uncertainty quantification method is employed to evaluate the uncertainty of the calculated evaporation residue cross sections (ERCS) for…

Bayesian optimization is a coherent, ubiquitous approach to decision-making under uncertainty, with applications including multi-arm bandits, active learning, and black-box optimization. Bayesian optimization selects decisions (i.e.…

The objective of this work is to quantify the uncertainty in probability of failure estimates resulting from incomplete knowledge of the probability distributions for the input random variables. We propose a framework that couples the…

Recursive Bayesian inference, in which posterior beliefs are updated in light of accumulating data, is a tool for implementing Bayesian models in applications with streaming and/or very large data sets. As the posterior of one iteration…

In nuclear engineering, modeling and simulations (M&Ss) are widely applied to support risk-informed safety analysis. Since nuclear safety analysis has important implications, a convincing validation process is needed to assess simulation…

Predictive uncertainty in hydrological modelling is quantified by using post-processing or Bayesian-based methods. The former methods are not straightforward and the latter ones are not distribution-free (i.e. assumptions on the probability…

To quantify how well theoretical predictions of structural ensembles agree with experimental measurements, we depend on the accuracy of forward models. These models are computational frameworks that generate observable quantities from…

Uncertainties from model parameters and model discrepancy from small-scale models impact the accuracy and reliability of predictions of large-scale systems. Inadequate representation of these uncertainties may result in inaccurate and…

In this paper, we employ a Bayesian approach to uncertainty quantification of computer simulations used to assess the probability of rare events. As a case study, we assess the reliability of an Earth reentry capsule for sample return…

This study proposes a simple and practical approach based on in-vitro measurements and in-silico simulation using the likelihood-free Bayesian inference with the finite element method simultaneously for stochastic calibration and…

Species distribution models (SDMs), which aim to predict species occurrence based on environmental variables, are widely used to monitor and respond to biodiversity change. Recent deep learning advances for SDMs have been shown to perform…

Modern neural networks have proven to be powerful function approximators, providing state-of-the-art performance in a multitude of applications. They however fall short in their ability to quantify confidence in their predictions - this is…

In the presence of modeling errors, the mainstream Bayesian methods seldom give a realistic account of uncertainties as they commonly underestimate the inherent variability of parameters. This problem is not due to any misconception in the…

Climate change poses significant challenges for accurate climate modeling due to the complexity and variability of non-Gaussian climate systems. To address the complexities of non-Gaussian systems in climate modeling, this thesis proposes a…

This article tackles the old problem of prediction via a nonparametric transformation model (NTM) in a new Bayesian way. Estimation of NTMs is known challenging due to model unidentifiability though appealing because of its robust…

Likelihood-based inference in stochastic non-linear dynamical systems, such as those found in chemical reaction networks and biological clock systems, is inherently complex and has largely been limited to small and unrealistically simple…

Accurate uncertainty estimates are important in sequential model-based decision-making tasks such as Bayesian optimization. However, these estimates can be imperfect if the data violates assumptions made by the model (e.g., Gaussianity).…

The current standard Bayesian approach to model calibration, which assigns a Gaussian process prior to the discrepancy term, often suffers from issues of unidentifiability and computational complexity and instability. When the goal is to…

Bayesian methods are increasingly being applied to parameterize mechanistic process models used in environmental prediction and forecasting. In particular, models describing ecosystem dynamics with multiple states that are linear and…

Quantifying and reducing uncertainty in Earth system model parameterizations is essential to improving their reliability in decision-making. Forward uncertainty propagation is used to derive parameter sensitivity but requires physically…