相关论文: European summer weather regimes 1990-2019: Automat…

We present a non-linear AI-model designed to reconstruct monthly mean anomalies of the European temperature and precipitation based on the Euro-Atlantic Weather regimes (WR) indices. WR represent recurrent, quasi-stationary, and persistent…

Projected changes in summer precipitation deficits partly depend on alterations in synoptic circulations. Here, the automated Jenkinson-Collison (JC) classification is used to assess the ability of twenty-one Global Climate Models (GCMs) to…

This study investigates the synoptic circulation patterns associated with temperature extremes in southeastern (SE) Europe. Using ERA-Interim reanalysis data we report on the typical patterns that characterize the middle and upper…

Weather regimes describe the large-scale atmospheric circulation in the mid-latitudes in terms of a few circulation states that modulate regional surface weather. Subseasonal forecasts of prevailing weather regimes have proven skillful and…

The warming trend of the last decades is now so strong that it is discernible in local temperature observations. This opens the possibility to compare the trend to the warming predicted by comprehensive climate models (GCMs), which up to…

General circulation models (GCMs) are the foundation of weather and climate prediction. GCMs are physics-based simulators which combine a numerical solver for large-scale dynamics with tuned representations for small-scale processes such as…

Certain Weather Regimes (WR) are associated with a higher risk of energy shortages, i.e. Blocking regimes for European winters. However, there are many uncertainties tied to the implementation of WRs and associated risks in the energy…

Due to climate change, heatwaves are becoming more frequent and intense, with western Europe experiencing the strongest trends in the Northern Hemisphere mid-latitudes. Part of the temperature trends are caused by circulation changes, which…

West African societies are highly dependent on the West African Monsoon (WAM).Thus, a correct representation of the WAM in climate models is of paramount importance. In this article, the ability of 8 CMIP5 historical General Circulation…

Several large scale circulation patterns have been identified in relation to extreme Northern Hemisphere summer heatwaves. Three main ones are a double jet over Eurasia, a positive phase of the summer northern annular mode, and a…

We present a new statistical method to optimally link local weather extremes to large-scale atmospheric circulation structures. The method is illustrated using July-August daily mean temperature at 2m height (T2m) time-series over the…

The analysis of extremes in climate models is hindered by the lack of statistics due to the computational costs required to run simulations long enough to sample rare events. We demonstrate how rare event algorithms can improve the…

Weather regimes are recurrent and persistent large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns that modulate the occurrence of local impact variables such as extreme precipitation. In their capacity as mediators between long-range…

Variations in zonal surface temperature gradients and zonally asymmetric tropical overturning circulations (Walker circulations) are examined over a wide range of climates simulated with an idealized atmospheric general circulation model…

This study evaluates the performance of 36 historical CMIP6 GCM trajectories (1979-2005) in reproducing atmospheric circulation over the Iberian Peninsula in the summer months (June-September) using the Lamb Weather Type (WT) classification…

Reliable wind speed data is crucial for applications such as estimating local (future) wind power. Global Climate Models (GCMs) and Regional Climate Models (RCMs) provide forecasts over multi-decadal periods. However, their outputs vary…

The regimes of possible global atmospheric circulation patterns in an Earth-like atmosphere are explored using a simplified GCM based on the University of Hamburg's Portable University Model for the Atmosphere with simplified (linear)…

Weather extremes are a major societal and economic hazard, claiming thousands of lives and causing billions of dollars in damage every year. Under climate change, their impact and intensity are expected to worsen significantly.…

Accurate projections of wind energy potential under climate change are critical for effective long-term energy planning. While previous studies have highlighted the value of multi-model ensembles, they often fall short in capturing the full…

Extreme precipitation shows non-stationary behavior over time, but also with respect to other large-scale variables. While this effect is often neglected, we propose a model including the influence of North Atlantic Oscillation, time,…