相关论文: Stratospheric aerosol source inversion: Noise, var…
Inferring the properties of exoplanets from their atmospheres, while confronting low resolution and low signal-to-noise in the context of the quantities we want to derive, poses rigorous demands upon the data collected from observation.…
The ETAS model is widely employed to model the spatio-temporal distribution of earthquakes, generally using spatially invariant parameters. We propose an efficient method for the estimation of spatially varying parameters, using the…
Cosmological parameter uncertainties are often stated assuming a particular model, neglecting the model uncertainty, even when Bayesian model selection is unable to identify a conclusive best model. Bayesian model averaging is a method for…
Conjunction assessment requires knowledge of the uncertainty in the predicted orbit. Errors in the atmospheric density are a major source of error in the prediction of low Earth orbits. Therefore, accurate estimation of the density and…
A key factor in ensuring the accuracy of computer simulations that model physical systems is the proper calibration of their parameters based on real-world observations or experimental data. Inevitably, uncertainties arise, and Bayesian…
The AIRES (AIR-shower Extended Simulations) system is a set of programs and subroutines to realistically simulate particle showers produced after the incidence of high energy cosmic rays on the Earth's atmosphere, and to manage all the…
Given multi-model ensemble climate projections, the goal is to accurately and reliably predict future sea-level rise while lowering the uncertainty. This problem is important because sea-level rise affects millions of people in coastal…
The South and East Asian summer monsoons are globally significant meteorological features, creating a strongly seasonal pattern of precipitation. The stability of the monsoon is of extreme importance for a vast range of ecosystems and for…
The traditional approximation neglects the cosine components of the Coriolis acceleration, and this approximation has been widely used in the study of geophysical phenomena. However, the justification of the traditional approximation is…
Many subsurface engineering applications require accurate knowledge of the in-situ state of stress for their safe design and operation. Existing methods to meet this need primarily include field measurements for estimating one or more of…
Multi-model ensembles provide a pragmatic approach to the representation of model uncertainty in climate prediction. However, such representations are inherently ad hoc, and, as shown, probability distributions of climate variables based on…
The oscillatory movements of atmospheric air masses has been claimed to be the origin of the muon flux variation measured at the ground level. Using a cosmic ray toolkit (CORSIKA), we simulate cascade scenarios in a time scale of a year and…
Projection of changes in extreme indices of climate variables such as temperature and precipitation are critical to assess the potential impacts of climate change on human-made and natural systems, including critical infrastructures and…
In this work, a stochastic representation based on a physical transport principle is proposed to account for mesoscale eddy effects on the large-scale oceanic circulation. This stochastic framework arises from a decomposition of the…
We develop new methodology to improve our understanding of the causal effects of multivariate air pollution exposures on public health. Typically, exposure to air pollution for an individual is measured at their home geographic region,…
Surface solar irradiance varies on scales as small as seconds or meters due to scattering and absorption by the atmosphere. Clouds are the main driver of this variability, but moisture structures in the atmospheric boundary layer and…
Understanding subsurface ocean dynamics is essential for quantifying oceanic heat and mass transport, but direct observations at depth remain sparse due to logistical and technological constraints. In contrast, satellite missions provide…
Air pollution poses a serious threat to sustainable environmental conditions in the 21st century. Its importance in determining the health and living standards in urban settings is only expected to increase with time. Various factors…
The measurement of large scale patterns or anisotropies in the arrival direction of high energy cosmic rays is an important step towards the understanding of their origin. Such measurements rely on an accurate estimation of the detector…
A scale invariant, selfsimilar atmospheric eddy continuum exists in the planetary atmospheric boundary layer spanning several orders of magnitude in scales and gives rise to the observed fractal geometry for the global cloud cover pattern.…