相关论文: WASP: Voting-based ex Ante method for Selecting jo…

This work presents a new Distributionally Robust Optimization approach, using $p$-Wasserstein metrics, to analyze a stochastic program in a general context. The ambiguity set in this approach depends on the decision variable and is…

This paper investigates methods for estimating the optimal stochastic control policy for a Markov Decision Process with unknown transition dynamics and an unknown reward function. This form of model-free reinforcement learning comprises…

We study an online contextual decision-making problem with resource constraints. At each time period, the decision-maker first predicts a reward vector and resource consumption matrix based on a given context vector and then solves a…

The extant insurance literature demonstrates a paucity of finite-sample valid prediction intervals of future insurance claims in the regression setting. To address this challenge, this article proposes a new strategy that converts a…

Predicting the winner of an election is of importance to multiple stakeholders. To formulate the problem, we consider an independent sequence of categorical data with a finite number of possible outcomes in each. The data is assumed to be…

The vector cost bimatrix game is a method for multi-objective decision making that enables autonomous robotic systems to optimize for multiple goals at once while avoiding worst-case scenarios in neglected objectives. We expand this…

This paper considers multiple regression procedures for analyzing the relationship between a response variable and a vector of covariates in a nonparametric setting where both tuning parameters and the number of covariates need to be…

Running a reliability analysis on engineering problems involving complex numerical models can be computationally very expensive, requiring advanced simulation methods to reduce the overall numerical cost. Gaussian process based active…

We construct the maximally predictable portfolio (MPP) of stocks using machine learning. Solving for the optimal constrained weights in the multi-asset MPP gives portfolios with a high monthly coefficient of determination, given the sample…

The only acceptable form of polling in the multi-billion dollar survey research field utilizes representative samples. We argue that with proper statistical adjustment, non-representative polling can provide accurate predictions, and often…

The tuning parameter selection strategy for penalized estimation is crucial to identify a model that is both interpretable and predictive. However, popular strategies (e.g., minimizing average squared prediction error via cross-validation)…

A factor copula model is proposed in which factors are either simulable or estimable from exogenous information. Point estimation and inference are based on a simulated methods of moments (SMM) approach with non-overlapping simulation…

In this paper, we develop a variational method to track and make predictions about a real-world system from continuous imperfect observations about this system, using an agent-based model that describes the system dynamics. By combining the…

Parameter estimation and the variable selection are two pioneer issues in regression analysis. While traditional variable selection methods require prior estimation of the model parameters, the penalized methods simultaneously carry on…

Bayesian aggregation lets election forecasters combine diverse sources of information, such as state polls and economic and political indicators: as in our collaboration with The Economist magazine. However, the demands of real-time…

We develop a variational Bayes approach for dynamic variable selection in high-dimensional regression models with time-varying parameters and predictors that exhibit a predefined group structure. Through comprehensive simulation studies, we…

The pricing of financial derivatives, which requires massive calculations and close-to-real-time operations under many trading and arbitrage scenarios, were largely infeasible in the past. However, with the advancement of modern computing,…

Agents often have individual goals which depend on a group's actions. If agents trust a forecast of collective action and adapt strategically, such prediction can influence outcomes non-trivially, resulting in a form of performative…

Estimation and prediction in high dimensional multivariate factor stochastic volatility models is an important and active research area because such models allow a parsimonious representation of multivariate stochastic volatility. Bayesian…

We study the problem of reducing the variance of Monte Carlo estimators through performing suitable changes of the sampling measure which are induced by feedforward neural networks. To this end, building on the concept of vector stochastic…