相关论文: Multi-time small-area estimation of oil and gas pr…

A Bayesian approach is developed to analyze change points in multivariate time series and space-time data. The methodology is used to assess the impact of extended inundation on the ecosystem of the Gulf Plains bioregion in northern…

It is very difficult to forecast the production rate of oil wells as the output of a single well is sensitive to various uncertain factors, which implicitly or explicitly show the influence of the static, temporal and spatial properties on…

In this paper, a multipurpose Bayesian-based method for data analysis, causal inference and prediction in the sphere of oil and gas reservoir development is considered. This allows analysing parameters of a reservoir, discovery dependencies…

Establishing accurate field development parameters to optimize long-term oil production takes time and effort due to the complexity of oil well development, and the uncertainty in estimating long-term well production. Traditionally, oil and…

This paper illustrates an application of machine learning (ML) within a complex system that performs grade estimation. In surface mining, assay measurements taken from production drilling often provide useful information that allows…

Forecasting oil production from oilfields with multiple wells is an important problem in petroleum and geothermal energy extraction, as well as energy storage technologies. The accuracy of oil forecasts is a critical determinant of economic…

Bayesian hierarchical methods implemented for small area estimation focus on reducing the noise variation in published government official statistics by borrowing information among dependent response values. Even the most flexible models…

With extreme weather events becoming more common, the risk posed by surface water flooding is ever increasing. In this work we propose a model, and associated Bayesian inference scheme, for generating probabilistic (high-resolution…

Geostatistical modeling of the reservoir intrinsic properties starts only with sparse data available. These estimates will depend largely on the number of wells and their location. The drilling costs are so high that they do not allow new…

We develop the methodology and a detailed case study in use of a class of Bayesian predictive synthesis (BPS) models for multivariate time series forecasting. This extends the recently introduced foundational framework of BPS to the…

Reducing methane emissions from the oil and gas sector is a key component of short-term climate action. Emission reduction efforts are often conducted at the individual site-level, where being able to apportion emissions between a finite…

We propose a Machine Learning approach for optimal macroeconomic density forecasting in a high-dimensional setting where the underlying model exhibits a known group structure. Our approach is general enough to encompass specific forecasting…

Obtaining accurate water level predictions are essential for water resource management and implementing flood mitigation strategies. Several data-driven models can be found in the literature. However, there has been limited research with…

With the growing capabilities of Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and user-friendly software, statisticians today routinely encounter geographically referenced data containing observations from a large number of spatial locations and…

This paper introduces a Bayesian hierarchical modeling framework within a fully probabilistic setting for crop yield estimation, model selection, and uncertainty forecasting under multiple future greenhouse gas emission scenarios. By…

Probabilistic modeling of multidimensional spatiotemporal data is critical to many real-world applications. As real-world spatiotemporal data often exhibits complex dependencies that are nonstationary and nonseparable, developing effective…

A variational inference-based framework for training a multi-output Gaussian process latent variable model, specifically tailored to the tails-up spatio-temporal stream network, is developed. Training, given a censored observational data…

Quantifying spatial and/or temporal associations in multivariate geolocated data of different types is achievable via spatial random effects in a Bayesian hierarchical model, but severe computational bottlenecks arise when spatial…

The paper proposes a Bayesian multinomial logit model to analyse spatial patterns of urban expansion. The specification assumes that the log-odds of each class follow a spatial autoregressive process. Using recent advances in Bayesian…

Exploration using borehole drilling is a key activity in determining the most appropriate locations for the petroleum industry to develop oil fields. However, estimating the amount of Oil In Place (OIP) relies on computing with a very…