相关论文: Working Paper: Conflicts and the New Scramble for …

This study reevaluates the traditional understanding of the "political resource curse" by examining the unique impact of energy transition metals, specifically cobalt, on local-level conflicts in Africa. Contrary to previous studies that…

This paper investigates how geopolitical conflict reshapes trade patterns, focusing on the economic consequences of the Russo-Ukrainian war on European and global trade flows. War is conceptualized as a shock that increases bilateral trade…

In the wake of the 2008 financial crisis the role of strongly interconnected markets in fostering systemic instability has been increasingly acknowledged. Trade networks of commodities are susceptible to deleterious cascades of supply…

The energy trade is an important pillar of each country's development, making up for the imbalance in the production and consumption of fossil fuels. Geopolitical risks affect the energy trade of various countries to a certain extent, but…

Using state-of-the-art techniques in computer vision, we analyze one million satellite images covering 12% of the African continent between 1984 and 2019 to track local development around 1,658 mineral deposits. We use stacked event studies…

The global push for electric vehicles (EVs) has sharply increased demand for critical minerals such as cobalt and lithium, creating a tension between rapid industrial growth and long-term sustainability. Extraction is concentrated in a few…

When the prices of cereal grains rise, social unrest and conflict become likely. In rural areas, the predation motives of perpetrators can explain the positive relationship between prices and conflict. Predation happens at places and in…

How do severe shocks such as war alter the economy? We study how a country's production network is affected by a devastating but localized conflict. Using unique transaction-level data on Ukrainian railway shipments around the start of the…

The correct understanding of commodity price dynamics can bring relevant improvements in terms of policy formulation both for developing and developed countries. Agricultural, metal and energy commodity prices might depend on each other:…

We study the diffusion of shocks in the global financial cycle and global liquidity conditions to emerging and developing economies. We show that the classification according to their external trade patterns (as commodities' net exporters…

A noteworthy feature of U.S. politics in recent years is serious partisan conflict, which has led to intensifying polarization and exacerbating high policy uncertainty. The US is a significant player in oil and gold markets. Oil and gold…

This paper examines the impact of the Anglophone Conflict in Cameroon on human capital accumulation. Using high-quality individual-level data on test scores and information on conflict-related violent events, a difference-in-differences…

We study the effect of social distancing, food vulnerability, welfare and labour COVID-19 policy responses on riots, violence against civilians and food-related conflicts. Our analysis uses georeferenced data for 24 African countries with…

Geopolitical conflicts have increasingly been a driver of trade policy. We study the potential effects of global and persistent geopolitical conflicts on trade, technological innovation, and economic growth. In conventional trade models the…

The objective of the paper is to understand the role of workers bargaining for the labor share in transition economies. We rely on a share-capital schedule, whereby workers bargaining power is represented as a move off the schedule.…

We study competitive equilibria in exchange economies when a continuum of goods is conflated into a finite set of commodities. The design of conflation choices affects the allocation of scarce resources among agents, by constraining trading…

Are big conflicts different from small or medium size conflicts? To answer this question, we leverage fine-grained conflict data, which we map to climate, geography, infrastructure, economics, raw demographics, and demographic composition…

High and volatile global food prices have led to food riots and played a critical role in triggering the Arab Spring revolutions in recent years. The severe drought in the US in the summer of 2012 led to a new increase in food prices.…

Human deaths caused by individual man-made conflicts (e.g., wars, armed-conflicts, terrorist-attacks etc.) occur unequally across the events (conflicts) and such inequality (in deaths) have been studied here using Lorenz curve and values of…

The common wisdom argues that, in general, large trades cause large price changes, while small trades cause small price changes. However, for extremely large price changes, the trade size and news play a minor role, while the liquidity…