相关论文: A Bayesian workflow for securitizing casualty insu…

Navigating urban intersections, especially when interacting with heterogeneous traffic participants, presents a formidable challenge for autonomous vehicles (AVs). In such environments, safety risks arise simultaneously from multiple…

Systems engineering approaches use high-level models to capture the architecture and behavior of the system. However, when safety engineers conduct safety and reliability analysis, they have to create formal models, such as fault-trees,…

We present Sequential Neural Likelihood (SNL), a new method for Bayesian inference in simulator models, where the likelihood is intractable but simulating data from the model is possible. SNL trains an autoregressive flow on simulated data…

The United States Bureau of Labor Statistics collects data using survey instruments under informative sampling designs that assign probabilities of inclusion to be correlated with the response. The bureau extensively uses Bayesian…

Survival models are used to analyze time-to-event data in a variety of disciplines. Proportional hazard models provide interpretable parameter estimates, but proportional hazards assumptions are not always appropriate. Non-parametric models…

Multivariate stochastic volatility models with skew distributions are proposed. Exploiting Cholesky stochastic volatility modeling, univariate stochastic volatility processes with leverage effect and generalized hyperbolic skew…

In this work, we perform safety analysis of linear dynamical systems with uncertainties. Instead of computing a conservative overapproximation of the reachable set, our approach involves computing a statistical approximate reachable set. As…

Random delays between the occurrence of accident events and the corresponding reporting times of insurance claims is a standard feature of insurance data. The time lag between the reporting and the processing of a claim depends on whether…

We present an approach for safe motion planning under robot state and environment (obstacle and landmark location) uncertainties. To this end, we first develop an approach that accounts for the landmark uncertainties during robot…

Time-to-event models are commonly used to study associations between risk factors and disease outcomes in the setting of electronic health records (EHR). In recent years, focus has intensified on social determinants of health, highlighting…

We consider the problem of approximate Bayesian parameter inference in non-linear state-space models with intractable likelihoods. Sequential Monte Carlo with approximate Bayesian computations (SMC-ABC) is one approach to approximate the…

Machine Learning (ML) has gained popularity in actuarial research and insurance industrial applications. However, the performance of most ML tasks heavily depends on data preprocessing, model selection, and hyperparameter optimization,…

A Value-at-Risk based model is proposed to compute the adequate equity capital necessary to cover potential losses due to operational risks, such as human and system process failures, in banking organizations. Exploring the analogy to a…

In this paper, we model dependence between operational risks by allowing risk profiles to evolve stochastically in time and to be dependent. This allows for a flexible correlation structure where the dependence between frequencies of…

A functional risk curve gives the probability of an undesirable event as a function of the value of a critical parameter of a considered physical system. In several applicative situations, this curve is built using phenomenological…

We introduce a novel framework to financial time series forecasting that leverages causality-inspired models to balance the trade-off between invariance to distributional changes and minimization of prediction errors. To the best of our…

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) performs statistical inference for otherwise intractable probability models by accepting parameter proposals when corresponding simulated datasets are sufficiently close to the observations. Producing…

This paper addresses significant obstacles that arise from the widespread use of machine learning models in the insurance industry, with a specific focus on promoting fairness. The initial challenge lies in effectively leveraging unlabeled…

The paper introduces a general framework for statistical analysis of functional time series from a Bayesian perspective. The proposed approach, based on an extension of the popular dynamic linear model to Banach-space valued observations…

In Interactive Machine Learning (IML), we iteratively make decisions and obtain noisy observations of an unknown function. While IML methods, e.g., Bayesian optimization and active learning, have been successful in applications, on…