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Weather prediction today is performed with numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. These are deterministic simulation models describing the dynamics of the atmosphere, and evolving the current conditions forward in time to obtain a…

应用统计 · 统计学 2020-03-18 Annette Möller , Jürgen Groß

The success of deep learning techniques over the last decades has opened up a new avenue of research for weather forecasting. Here, we take the novel approach of using a neural network to predict full probability density functions at each…

机器学习 · 统计学 2022-01-05 Mariana Clare , Omar Jamil , Cyril Morcrette

Understanding spatio-temporal patterns in polar ice layers is essential for tracking changes in ice sheet balance and assessing ice dynamics. While convolutional neural networks are widely used in learning ice layer patterns from raw…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-11-07 Zesheng Liu , Maryam Rahnemoonfar

Deep learning-based models have recently outperformed state-of-the-art seasonal forecasting models, such as for predicting El Ni\~no-Southern Oscillation (ENSO). However, current deep learning models are based on convolutional neural…

We propose a machine-learning-based methodology for in-situ weather forecast postprocessing that is both spatially coherent and multivariate. Compared to previous work, our Flow MAtching Postprocessing (FMAP) better represents the…

大气与海洋物理 · 物理学 2025-04-28 David Landry , Claire Monteleoni , Anastase Charantonis

Weather forecasting centers currently rely on statistical postprocessing methods to minimize forecast error. This improves skill but can lead to predictions that violate physical principles or disregard dependencies between variables, which…

大气与海洋物理 · 物理学 2023-05-23 Francesco Zanetta , Daniele Nerini , Tom Beucler , Mark A. Liniger

Accurate precipitation forecasts have a high socio-economic value due to their role in decision-making in various fields such as transport networks and farming. We propose a global statistical postprocessing method for grid-based…

机器学习 · 统计学 2024-07-03 Romain Pic , Clément Dombry , Philippe Naveau , Maxime Taillardat

In order to enable the transition towards renewable energy sources, probabilistic energy forecasting is of critical importance for incorporating volatile power sources such as solar energy into the electrical grid. Solar energy forecasting…

应用统计 · 统计学 2021-05-03 Benedikt Schulz , Mehrez El Ayari , Sebastian Lerch , Sándor Baran

This report first provides a brief overview of a number of supervised learning algorithms for regression tasks. Among those are neural networks, regression trees, and the recently introduced Nexting. Nexting has been presented in the…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2019-03-19 Michael Koller , Johannes Feldmaier , Klaus Diepold

This paper investigates the impact of observations on atmospheric state estimation in weather forecasting systems using graph neural networks (GNNs) and explainability methods. We integrate observation and Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP)…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2024-03-27 Hyeon-Ju Jeon , Jeon-Ho Kang , In-Hyuk Kwon , O-Joun Lee

With an ever-increasing number of sensors in modern society, spatio-temporal time series forecasting has become a de facto tool to make informed decisions about the future. Most spatio-temporal forecasting models typically comprise distinct…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-03-24 Lars Ødegaard Bentsen , Narada Dilp Warakagoda , Roy Stenbro , Paal Engelstad

A graph neural network (GNN) for image understanding based on multiple cues is proposed in this paper. Compared to traditional feature and decision fusion approaches that neglect the fact that features can interact and exchange information,…

计算机视觉与模式识别 · 计算机科学 2020-03-02 Xin Guo , Luisa F. Polania , Bin Zhu , Charles Boncelet , Kenneth E. Barner

Seasonal climate predictions support planning and risk management by offering early information of the most likely-to-occur climate conditions in the coming months, and associated uncertainties. Ensemble forecasts enable this by simulating…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-05-29 Parsa Gooya , Reinel Sospedra-Alfonso

In many machine learning tasks, models are trained to predict structure data such as graphs. For example, in natural language processing, it is very common to parse texts into dependency trees or abstract meaning representation (AMR)…

An influential step in weather forecasting was the introduction of ensemble forecasts in operational use due to their capability to account for the uncertainties in the future state of the atmosphere. However, ensemble weather forecasts are…

应用统计 · 统计学 2023-05-25 Mária Lakatos , Sebastian Lerch , Stephan Hemri , Sándor Baran

State-of-the-art weather forecasts usually rely on ensemble prediction systems, accounting for the different sources of uncertainty. As ensembles are typically uncalibrated, they should get statistically postprocessed. Several multivariate…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2016-09-21 Roman Schefzik

The significant increase in world population and urbanisation has brought several important challenges, in particular regarding the sustainability, maintenance and planning of urban mobility. At the same time, the exponential increase of…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-04-28 João Rico , José Barateiro , Arlindo Oliveira

We tackle the problem of forecasting network-signal snapshots using past signal measurements acquired by a subset of network nodes. This task can be seen as a combination of multivariate time-series prediction and graph-signal…

信号处理 · 电气工程与系统科学 2020-06-03 Gabriela Lewenfus , Wallace Alves Martins , Symeon Chatzinotas , Björn Ottersten

Modeling human trajectories in crowded environments is challenging due to the complex nature of pedestrian behavior and interactions. This paper proposes a geometric graph neural network (GNN) architecture that integrates domain knowledge…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-10-24 Sara Honarvar , Yancy Diaz-Mercado

We introduce Graph Neural Processes (GNP), inspired by the recent work in conditional and latent neural processes. A Graph Neural Process is defined as a Conditional Neural Process that operates on arbitrary graph data. It takes features of…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2019-10-03 Andrew Carr , David Wingate