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In many inference problems, the evaluation of complex and costly models is often required. In this context, Bayesian methods have become very popular in several fields over the last years, in order to obtain parameter inversion, model…

计算工程、金融与科学 · 计算机科学 2021-07-21 Luca Martino , Víctor Elvira , Javier López-Santiago , Gustau Camps-Valls

Model selection in the presence of intractable likelihoods remains a central challenge in Bayesian inference. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) provides a flexible likelihood-free framework, but its use for model choice is known to be…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-03-03 Clara Grazian

We present a fully Bayesian sequential strategy for predicting the mean response surface of heteroscedastic stochastic simulation functions. Leveraging dual Gaussian processes as the surrogate model and a criterion based on empirical…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-06-12 Yuying Huang , Samuel W. K. Wong

Bayesian inference is often used in cosmology and astrophysics to derive constraints on model parameters from observations. This approach relies on the ability to compute the likelihood of the data given a choice of model parameters. In…

宇宙学与河外天体物理 · 物理学 2015-09-16 Joel Akeret , Alexandre Refregier , Adam Amara , Sebastian Seehars , Caspar Hasner

Selecting between different dependency structures of hidden Markov random field can be very challenging, due to the intractable normalizing constant in the likelihood. We answer this question with approximate Bayesian computation (ABC)…

统计理论 · 数学 2019-09-04 Julien Stoehr , Pierre Pudlo , Lionel Cucala

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) has become an essential tool for the analysis of complex stochastic models when the likelihood function is numerically unavailable. However, the well-established statistical method of empirical…

统计计算 · 统计学 2015-06-05 K. L. Mengersen , P. Pudlo , C. P. Robert

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) methods are used to approximate posterior distributions using simulation rather than likelihood calculations. We introduce Gaussian process (GP) accelerated ABC, which we show can significantly reduce…

统计计算 · 统计学 2014-02-25 Richard D Wilkinson

Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) methods are applicable to statistical models specified by generative processes with analytically intractable likelihoods. These methods try to approximate the posterior density of a model parameter by…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-03-11 Sanjay Chaudhuri , Subhroshekhar Ghosh , Kim Cuc Pham

This paper provides a review of Approximate Bayesian Computation (ABC) methods for carrying out Bayesian posterior inference, through the lens of density estimation. We describe several recent algorithms and make connection with traditional…

统计计算 · 统计学 2019-09-09 Clara Grazian , Yanan Fan

A central statistical goal is to choose between alternative explanatory models of data. In many modern applications, such as population genetics, it is not possible to apply standard methods based on evaluating the likelihood functions of…

统计计算 · 统计学 2013-02-25 Dennis Prangle , Paul Fearnhead , Murray P. Cox , Patrick J. Biggs , Nigel P. French

Many modern statistical applications involve inference for complicated stochastic models for which the likelihood function is difficult or even impossible to calculate, and hence conventional likelihood-based inferential echniques cannot be…

统计计算 · 统计学 2013-05-29 Simon R. White , Theodore Kypraios , Simon P. Preston

Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is a well-established family of Monte Carlo methods for performing approximate Bayesian inference in the case where an ``implicit'' model is used for the data: when the data model can be simulated, but…

统计计算 · 统计学 2022-11-07 Ivis Kerama , Thomas Thorne , Richard G. Everitt

We study the class of state-space models and perform maximum likelihood estimation for the model parameters. We consider a stochastic approximation expectation-maximization (SAEM) algorithm to maximize the likelihood function with the…

统计计算 · 统计学 2017-10-25 Umberto Picchini , Adeline Samson

A growing number of generative statistical models do not permit the numerical evaluation of their likelihood functions. Approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) has become a popular approach to overcome this issue, in which one simulates…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2019-05-10 Espen Bernton , Pierre E. Jacob , Mathieu Gerber , Christian P. Robert

We analyze the computational efficiency of approximate Bayesian computation (ABC), which approximates a likelihood function by drawing pseudo-samples from the associated model. For the rejection sampling version of ABC, it is known that…

统计计算 · 统计学 2016-02-18 Luke Bornn , Natesh Pillai , Aaron Smith , Dawn Woodard

In this article, we propose an adapted sequential Monte Carlo approximate Bayesian computation (SMC-ABC) algorithm for network inference in coupled stochastic differential equations (SDEs) used for multivariate time series modeling. Our…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-08-27 Susanne Ditlevsen , Massimiliano Tamborrino , Irene Tubikanec

We consider the problem of calibrating an imperfect computer model using experimental data. To compensate the misspecification of the computer model and make more accurate predictions, a discrepancy function is often included and modeled…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2018-05-04 Mengyang Gu , Long Wang

In recent years dynamical modelling has been provided with a range of breakthrough methods to perform exact Bayesian inference. However it is often computationally unfeasible to apply exact statistical methodologies in the context of large…

统计计算 · 统计学 2014-12-24 Umberto Picchini , Julie Lyng Forman

This chapter will appear in the forthcoming Handbook of Approximate Bayesian Computation (2018). The conceptual and methodological framework that underpins approximate Bayesian computation (ABC) is targetted primarily towards problems in…

统计计算 · 统计学 2018-03-20 Christopher C Drovandi , Clara Grazian , Kerrie Mengersen , Christian Robert

1. Challenging calibration of complex models can be approached by using prior knowledge on the parameters. However, the natural choice of Bayesian inference can be computationally heavy when relying on Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC)…

应用统计 · 统计学 2023-04-27 Charlotte Baey , Henrik G. Smith , Maj Rundlöf , Ola Olsson , Yann Clough , Ullrika Sahlin