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It has recently become popular to define treatment effects for subsets of the target population characterized by variables not observable at the time a treatment decision is made. Characterizing and estimating such treatment effects is…

统计理论 · 数学 2007-08-30 Marshall M. Joffe , Dylan Small , Chi-Yuan Hsu

State-level policy evaluations commonly employ a difference-in-differences (DID) study design; yet within this framework, statistical model specification varies notably across studies. Motivated by applied state-level opioid policy…

Randomized trials are considered the gold standard for making informed decisions in medicine, yet they often lack generalizability to the patient populations in clinical practice. Observational studies, on the other hand, cover a broader…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-04-14 Piersilvio De Bartolomeis , Javier Abad , Konstantin Donhauser , Fanny Yang

Causal inference quantifies cause-effect relationships by estimating counterfactual parameters from data. This entails using \emph{identification theory} to establish a link between counterfactual parameters of interest and distributions…

机器学习 · 统计学 2020-04-17 Jaron J. R. Lee , Ilya Shpitser

In randomized experiments, covariates are often used to reduce variance and improve the precision of treatment effect estimates. However, in many real-world settings, interference between units, where one unit's treatment affects another's…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-04-10 Xinyi Wang , Shuangning Li

Recent advances in causal mediation analysis have formalized conditions for estimating direct and indirect effects in various contexts. These approaches have been extended to a number of models for survival outcomes including accelerated…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2017-01-11 Isabel R. Fulcher , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen , Paige L. Williams

Recent work on dynamic interventions has greatly expanded the range of causal questions researchers can study while weakening identifying assumptions and yielding effects that are more practically relevant. However, most work in dynamic…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2019-07-10 Jacqueline A Mauro , Edward H Kennedy , Daniel Nagin

Heterogeneous treatment effect models allow us to compare treatments at subgroup and individual levels, and are of increasing popularity in applications like personalized medicine, advertising, and education. In this talk, we first survey…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-01-28 Zijun Gao , Trevor Hastie

The direct effect of one eventon another can be defined and measured byholding constant all intermediate variables between the two.Indirect effects present conceptual andpractical difficulties (in nonlinear models), because they cannot be…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2013-01-14 Judea Pearl

Researchers are often interested in treatment effects on outcomes that are only defined conditional on a post-treatment event status. For example, in a study of the effect of different cancer treatments on quality of life at end of…

In multicenter randomized trials, when effect modifiers have a different distribution across centers, comparisons between treatment groups that average over centers may not apply to any of the populations underlying the individual centers.…

Most of the literature on direct and indirect effects assumes that there are no post-treatment common causes of the mediator and the outcome. In contrast to natural direct and indirect effects, organic direct and indirect effects, which…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-07-10 Judith J Lok

Path-specific effects in mediation analysis provide a useful tool for fairness analysis, which is mostly based on nested counterfactuals. However, the dictum ``no causation without manipulation'' implies that path-specific effects might be…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2021-06-08 Heyang Gong , Ke Zhu

We address the common yet often-overlooked selection bias in interventional studies, where subjects are selectively enrolled into experiments. For instance, participants in a drug trial are usually patients of the relevant disease; A/B…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-03-11 Haoyue Dai , Ignavier Ng , Jianle Sun , Zeyu Tang , Gongxu Luo , Xinshuai Dong , Peter Spirtes , Kun Zhang

Measuring treatment effects in observational studies is challenging because of confounding bias. Confounding occurs when a variable affects both the treatment and the outcome. Traditional methods such as propensity score matching estimate…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-12-23 Bevan I. Smith , Charles Chimedza

When developing new interventions to minimize the harmful effects of an exposure, investigators usually target the mechanisms that mediate the causal effect of the exposure on the outcome. Predicting the causal effect of these new…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-08-10 Ian Shrier , Etsuji Suzuki

Two-sided marketplace platforms often run experiments to test the effect of an intervention before launching it platform-wide. A typical approach is to randomize individuals into the treatment group, which receives the intervention, and the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-04-27 Hannah Li , Geng Zhao , Ramesh Johari , Gabriel Y. Weintraub

The Implicit Association Test, IAT, is widely used to measure hidden (subconscious) human biases, implicit bias, of many topics: race, gender, age, ethnicity, religion stereotypes. There is a need to understand the reliability of these…

应用统计 · 统计学 2023-12-27 S. Stanley Young , Warren B. Kindzierski

Estimating causal effects under interference, where the stable unit treatment value assumption is violated, is critical in fields such as regional and public economics. Much of the existing research on causal inference under interference…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-02-03 Akihiro Sato , Shonosuke Sugasawa

As language technologies become widespread, it is important to understand how changes in language affect reader perceptions and behaviors. These relationships may be formalized as the isolated causal effect of some focal language-encoded…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2025-06-06 Victoria Lin , Louis-Philippe Morency , Eli Ben-Michael