相关论文: Predictability Limit of the 2021 Pacific Northwest…

With climate change-related extreme events on the rise, high dimensional Earth observation data presents a unique opportunity for forecasting and understanding impacts on ecosystems. This is, however, impeded by the complexity of…

Recent large-magnitude earthquakes have demonstrated the damaging consequences of soil liquefaction and reinforced the need to understand and plan for liquefaction hazards at a regional scale. In the United States, the Pacific Northwest is…

Accurate prediction of extreme weather events remains a major challenge for artificial intelligence-based weather prediction systems. While deterministic models such as FuXi, GraphCast, and SFNO have achieved competitive forecast skill…

Advancements in numerical weather prediction models have accelerated, fostering a more comprehensive understanding of physical phenomena pertaining to the dynamics of weather and related computing resources. Despite these advancements,…

Heatwaves are an important problem in cities, and climate change makes this problem more difficult. In this paper, we present a GPU-based deep learning framework for next-day prediction of urban thermal conditions and for heat risk…

Water managers in the western United States (U.S.) rely on longterm forecasts of temperature and precipitation to prepare for droughts and other wet weather extremes. To improve the accuracy of these longterm forecasts, the U.S. Bureau of…

Seasonal forecasting remains challenging due to the inherent chaotic nature of atmospheric dynamics. This paper introduces DeepSeasons, a novel deep learning approach designed to enhance the accuracy and reliability of seasonal forecasts.…

Accurate short range weather forecasting has significant implications for various sectors. Machine learning based approaches, e.g., deep learning, have gained popularity in this domain where the existing numerical weather prediction (NWP)…

Subseasonal forecasting -- predicting temperature and precipitation 2 to 6 weeks ahead -- is critical for effective water allocation, wildfire management, and drought and flood mitigation. Recent international research efforts have advanced…

Subseasonal forecasting of the weather two to six weeks in advance is critical for resource allocation and advance disaster notice but poses many challenges for the forecasting community. At this forecast horizon, physics-based dynamical…

Accurate weather forecasts are important for disaster prevention, agricultural planning, etc. Traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) methods offer physically interpretable high-accuracy predictions but are computationally expensive…

Sub-seasonal weather forecasts are becoming increasingly important for a range of socio-economic activities. However, the predictive ability of physical weather models is very limited on these time scales. We propose several post-processing…

Weather forecasting remains a crucial yet challenging domain, where recently developed models based on deep learning (DL) have approached the performance of traditional numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. However, these DL models,…

Heatwaves, prolonged periods of extreme heat, have intensified in frequency and severity due to climate change, posing substantial risks to public health, ecosystems, and infrastructure. Despite advancements in Machine Learning (ML)…

Deep Learning models have achieved state-of-the-art performance in medium-range weather prediction but often fail to maintain physically consistent rollouts beyond 14 days. In contrast, a few atmospheric models demonstrate stability over…

In this paper, we step back from a variety of competing heat wave definitions and forecast directly unusually high temperatures. Our testbed is the Russian Far East in the summers of 2022 and 2023. Remotely sensed data from NASA's Aqua…

AI-based climate and weather models have rapidly gained popularity, providing faster forecasts with skill that can match or even surpass that of traditional dynamical models. Despite this success, these models face a key challenge:…

The success of deep learning techniques over the last decades has opened up a new avenue of research for weather forecasting. Here, we take the novel approach of using a neural network to predict full probability density functions at each…

We discuss an approach to probabilistic forecasting based on two chained machine-learning steps: a dimensional reduction step that learns a reduction map of predictor information to a low-dimensional space in a manner designed to preserve…

The rise of accurate machine learning methods for weather forecasting is creating radical new possibilities for modeling the atmosphere. In the time of climate change, having access to high-resolution forecasts from models like these is…