相关论文: A Combination Model Based on Sequential General Va…

Retail sales forecasting presents a significant challenge for large retailers such as Walmart and Amazon, due to the vast assortment of products, geographical location heterogeneity, seasonality, and external factors including weather,…

Forecast reconciliation has become a prominent topic in recent forecasting literature, with a primary distinction made between cross-sectional and temporal hierarchies. This work focuses on temporal hierarchies, such as aggregating monthly…

In this paper, we propose a novel method of model-based time series clustering with mixtures of general state space models (MSSMs). Each component of MSSMs is associated with each cluster. An advantage of the proposed method is that it…

We describe spatio-temporal random processes using linear mixed models. We show how many commonly used models can be viewed as special cases of this general framework and pay close attention to models with separable or product-sum…

Model uncertainty is a central challenge in statistical models for binary outcomes such as logistic regression, arising when it is unclear which predictors should be included in the model. Many methods have been proposed to address this…

With large quantities of data typically available nowadays, forecasting models that are trained across sets of time series, known as Global Forecasting Models (GFM), are regularly outperforming traditional univariate forecasting models that…

We demonstrate the application of an algorithmic trading strategy based upon the recently developed dynamic mode decomposition (DMD) on portfolios of financial data. The method is capable of characterizing complex dynamical systems, in this…

Accurately forecasting long-term atmospheric variables remains a defining challenge in meteorological science due to the chaotic nature of atmospheric systems. Temperature data represents a complex superposition of deterministic cyclical…

This work presents a Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) network for forecasting a monthly electricity demand time series with a one-year horizon. The novelty of this work is the use of pattern representation of the seasonal time series as an…

The quest for accurate economic forecasting has traditionally been dominated by econometric models, which most of the times rely on the assumptions of linear relationships and stationarity in of the data. However, the complex and often…

Predicting Bitcoin price remains a challenging problem due to the high volatility and complex non-linear dynamics of cryptocurrency markets. Traditional time-series models, such as ARIMA and GARCH, and recurrent neural networks, like LSTMs,…

Accurate time series forecasting, predicting future values based on past data, is crucial for diverse industries. Many current time series methods decompose time series into multiple sub-series, applying different model architectures and…

Diffusion models have risen to prominence in time series forecasting, showcasing their robust capability to model complex data distributions. However, their effectiveness in deterministic predictions is often constrained by instability…

Time series forecasting remains a central challenge problem in almost all scientific disciplines. We introduce a novel load forecasting method in which observed dynamics are modeled as a forced linear system using Dynamic Mode Decomposition…

Spatial-temporal forecasting systems play a crucial role in addressing numerous real-world challenges. In this paper, we investigate the potential of addressing spatial-temporal forecasting problems using general time series forecasting…

We introduce twenty four two-parameter families of advanced time series forecasting functions using a new and nonparametric approach. We also introduce the concept of powering and derive nonseasonal and seasonal models with examples in…

Clinical time-series data are difficult to model with methods designed for regular sequences because they exhibit irregular sampling, frequent missing values, and heterogeneous observation patterns across variables. Existing approaches…

This study discusses how insights retrieved from subscriber data can impact decision-making in telecommunications, focusing on predictive modeling using machine learning techniques such as the ARIMA model. The study explores time series…

Forecasting models that are trained across sets of many time series, known as Global Forecasting Models (GFM), have shown recently promising results in forecasting competitions and real-world applications, outperforming many…

Time series forecasting and anomaly detection are common tasks for practitioners in industries such as retail, manufacturing, advertising and energy. Two unique challenges stand out: (1) efficiently and accurately forecasting time series or…