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Cross-validation is a widely-used technique to estimate prediction error, but its behavior is complex and not fully understood. Ideally, one would like to think that cross-validation estimates the prediction error for the model at hand, fit…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-03-12 Stephen Bates , Trevor Hastie , Robert Tibshirani

Cross-validation is a standard tool for obtaining a honest assessment of the performance of a prediction model. The commonly used version repeatedly splits data, trains the prediction model on the training set, evaluates the model…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-10-10 Tianyu Pan , Vincent Z. Yu , Viswanath Devanarayan , Lu Tian

Cross-validation is one of the most popular model selection methods in statistics and machine learning. Despite its wide applicability, traditional cross validation methods tend to select overfitting models, due to the ignorance of the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2017-12-25 Jing Lei

Cross-validation plays a fundamental role in Machine Learning, enabling robust evaluation of model performance and preventing overestimation on training and validation data. However, one of its drawbacks is the potential to create data…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-08-28 Afonso Martini Spezia , Thomas Fontanari , Mariana Recamonde-Mendoza

Cross-validation (CV) is a common method to tune machine learning methods and can be used for model selection in regression as well. Because of the structured nature of small, traditional experimental designs, the literature has warned…

应用统计 · 统计学 2025-06-18 Maria L. Weese , Byran J. Smucker , David J. Edwards

With the growing application of spatial predictive modeling in ecology, the question of how to appropriately evaluate the resulting maps has gained increasing attention. While there is consensus that map accuracy is ideally estimated using…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-05-14 Jan Linnenbrink , Jakub Nowosad , Hanna Meyer

Cross-Validation (CV) is the default choice for evaluating the performance of machine learning models. Despite its wide usage, their statistical benefits have remained half-understood, especially in challenging nonparametric regimes. In…

统计理论 · 数学 2024-08-22 Garud Iyengar , Henry Lam , Tianyu Wang

Penalized logistic regression methods are frequently used to investigate the relationship between a binary outcome and a set of explanatory variables. The model performance can be assessed by measures such as the concordance statistic…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-01-20 Angelika Geroldinger , Lara Lusa , Mariana Nold , Georg Heinze

Cross-validation (CV) is a widely-used method of predictive assessment based on repeated model fits to different subsets of the available data. CV is applicable in a wide range of statistical settings. However, in cases where data are not…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-04-23 Alex Cooper , Aki Vehtari , Catherine Forbes

Cross-validation is a well-known and widely used bandwidth selection method in nonparametric regression estimation. However, this technique has two remarkable drawbacks: (i) the large variability of the selected bandwidths, and (ii) the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-05-11 D. Barreiro-Ures , R. Cao , M. Francisco-Fernández

Cross-validation is a popular non-parametric method for evaluating the accuracy of a predictive rule. The usefulness of cross-validation depends on the task we want to employ it for. In this note, I discuss a simple non-parametric setting,…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2019-09-27 Stefan Wager

As the main workhorse for model selection, Cross Validation (CV) has achieved an empirical success due to its simplicity and intuitiveness. However, despite its ubiquitous role, CV often falls into the following notorious dilemmas. On the…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2020-12-29 Weikai Li , Chuanxing Geng , Songcan Chen

Statistical machine learning models should be evaluated and validated before putting to work. Conventional k-fold Monte Carlo Cross-Validation (MCCV) procedure uses a pseudo-random sequence to partition instances into k subsets, which…

机器学习 · 统计学 2019-07-05 Liang Guo , Jianya Liu , Ruodan Lu

This paper begins with a general theory of error in cross-validation testing of algorithms for supervised learning from examples. It is assumed that the examples are described by attribute-value pairs, where the values are symbolic.…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2007-05-23 Peter D. Turney

Cross-validation is a widely used technique for evaluating the performance of prediction models, ranging from simple binary classification to complex precision medicine strategies. It helps correct for optimism bias in error estimates,…

Cross-validation is the de facto standard for predictive model evaluation and selection. In proper use, it provides an unbiased estimate of a model's predictive performance. However, data sets often undergo various forms of data-dependent…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-01-18 Amit Moscovich , Saharon Rosset

Cross-validation techniques for risk estimation and model selection are widely used in statistics and machine learning. However, the understanding of the theoretical properties of learning via model selection with cross-validation risk…

机器学习 · 统计学 2024-05-27 Diego Marcondes , Cláudia Peixoto

Performance estimation aims at estimating the loss that a predictive model will incur on unseen data. These procedures are part of the pipeline in every machine learning project and are used for assessing the overall generalisation ability…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2021-08-31 Vitor Cerqueira , Luis Torgo , Igor Mozetic

It is useful to estimate the expected predictive performance of models planned to be used for prediction. We focus on leave-one-out cross-validation (LOO-CV), which has become a popular method for estimating predictive performance of…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-10-29 Tuomas Sivula , Måns Magnusson , Asael Alonzo Matamoros , Aki Vehtari

Cross-validation is the standard approach for tuning parameter selection in many non-parametric regression problems. However its use is less common in change-point regression, perhaps as its prediction error-based criterion may appear to…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-02-13 Florian Pein , Rajen D. Shah
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