相关论文: Single Trajectory Conformal Prediction

Conformal Prediction (CP) is a principled framework for quantifying uncertainty in blackbox learning models, by constructing prediction sets with finite-sample coverage guarantees. Traditional approaches rely on scalar nonconformity scores,…

We introduce a simple but effective method for managing risk in model-based reinforcement learning with trajectory sampling that involves probabilistic safety constraints and balancing of optimism in the face of epistemic uncertainty and…

The adoption of cyber-physical systems (CPS) is on the rise in complex physical environments, encompassing domains such as autonomous vehicles, the Internet of Things (IoT), and smart cities. A critical attribute of CPS is robustness,…

In this paper we propose a novel decision making architecture for Robust Model Predictive Path Integral control (RMPPI) and investigate its performance guarantees and applicability to off-road navigation. Key building blocks of the proposed…

Conformal risk control is an extension of conformal prediction for controlling risk functions beyond miscoverage. The original algorithm controls the expected value of a loss that is monotonic in a one-dimensional parameter. Here, we…

This study examines portfolio selection using predictive models for portfolio returns. Portfolio selection is a fundamental task in finance, and a variety of methods have been developed to achieve this goal. For instance, the mean-variance…

Long prediction horizons in Model Predictive Control (MPC) often prove to be efficient, however, this comes with increased computational cost. Recently, a Robust Model Predictive Control (RMPC) method has been proposed which exploits models…

Trajectory optimization and model predictive control are essential techniques underpinning advanced robotic applications, ranging from autonomous driving to full-body humanoid control. State-of-the-art algorithms have focused on data-driven…

This paper demonstrates the single-shot learning capabilities of retrospective cost optimization based data-driven control applied to learning multirotor controller gains for trajectory tracking. In particular, the proposed control approach…

Distributional regression aims at estimating the conditional distribution of a targetvariable given explanatory co-variates. It is a crucial tool for forecasting whena precise uncertainty quantification is required. A popular methodology…

Conformal prediction offers a practical framework for distribution-free uncertainty quantification, providing finite-sample coverage guarantees under relatively mild assumptions on data exchangeability. However, these assumptions cease to…

Conformal prediction offers a powerful framework for building distribution-free prediction intervals for exchangeable data. Existing methods that extend conformal prediction to sequential data rely on fitting a relatively complex model to…

We propose a purely data-driven model predictive control (MPC) scheme to control unknown linear time-invariant systems with guarantees on stability and constraint satisfaction in the presence of noisy data. The scheme predicts future…

We consider the problem of optimal trajectory tracking for unknown systems. A novel data-enabled predictive control (DeePC) algorithm is presented that computes optimal and safe control policies using real-time feedback driving the unknown…

In vehicle trajectory tracking tasks, the simplest approach is the Pure Pursuit (PP) Control. However, this single-point preview tracking strategy fails to consider vehicle model constraints, compromising driving safety. Model Predictive…

Designing provably safe control is a core problem in trustworthy autonomy. However, most prior work in this regard assumes either that the system dynamics are known or deterministic, or that the state and action space are finite,…

This paper introduces the MPS (Model Prediction Set), a novel framework for online model selection for nonstationary time series. Classical model selection methods, such as information criteria and cross-validation, rely heavily on the…

Accurate vehicle trajectory prediction is essential for ensuring safety and efficiency in fully autonomous driving systems. While existing methods primarily focus on modeling observed motion patterns and interactions with other vehicles,…

Conformal prediction has been explored as a general and efficient way to provide uncertainty quantification for time series. However, current methods struggle to handle time series data with change points - sudden shifts in the underlying…

In this paper, we present a robust distributed model predictive control (DMPC) scheme for dynamically decoupled nonlinear systems which are subject to state constraints, coupled state constraints and input constraints. In the proposed…