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Causal effect estimation in networked systems is central to data-driven decision making. In such settings, interventions on one unit can spill over to others, and in complex physical or social systems, the interaction pathways driving these…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-11-27 Sadegh Shirani , Mohsen Bayati

It is commonplace to encounter heterogeneous or nonstationary data, of which the underlying generating process changes across domains or over time. Such a distribution shift feature presents both challenges and opportunities for causal…

In estimating the causal effect of a continuous exposure or treatment, it is important to control for all confounding factors. However, most existing methods require parametric specification for how control variables influence the outcome…

应用统计 · 统计学 2020-07-21 Spencer Woody , Carlos M. Carvalho , P. Richard Hahn , Jared S. Murray

We consider the estimation of average treatment effects in observational studies and propose a new framework of robust causal inference with unobserved confounders. Our approach is based on distributionally robust optimization and proceeds…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-02-06 Dimitris Bertsimas , Kosuke Imai , Michael Lingzhi Li

In this paper, we introduce the direct potential outcome system as a framework for analyzing dynamic causal effects of assignments on outcomes in observational time series settings. We provide conditions under which common predictive time…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2025-01-23 Ashesh Rambachan , Neil Shephard

Learning causal relationships among a set of variables, as encoded by a directed acyclic graph, from observational data is complicated by the presence of unobserved confounders. Instrumental variables (IVs) are a popular remedy for this…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-04-17 Jing Zou , Wei Li , Wei Lin

Existing statistical methods in causal inference often assume the positivity condition, where every individual has some chance of receiving any treatment level regardless of covariates. This assumption could be violated in observational…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-01-22 Yikun Zhang , Yen-Chi Chen , Alexander Giessing

A standard assumption for causal inference from observational data is that one has measured a sufficiently rich set of covariates to ensure that within covariate strata, subjects are exchangeable across observed treatment values. Skepticism…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-09-24 Eric J Tchetgen Tchetgen , Andrew Ying , Yifan Cui , Xu Shi , Wang Miao

Estimating causal effects is particularly challenging when outcomes arise in complex, non-Euclidean spaces, where conventional methods often fail to capture meaningful structural variation. We develop a framework for topological causal…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-03-04 Kwangho Kim , Hajin Lee

We propose a nonlinear difference-in-differences method to estimate multivariate counterfactual distributions in classical treatment and control study designs with observational data. Our approach sheds a new light on existing approaches…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-03-11 William Torous , Florian Gunsilius , Philippe Rigollet

We generalize the potential outcome framework to time series with an intervention by defining causal effects on stochastic processes. Interventions in dynamic systems alter not only outcome levels but also evolutionary dynamics -- changing…

Randomized trials and observational studies, more often than not, run over a certain period of time. The treatment effect evolves during this period which provides crucial insights into the treatment response and the long-term effects. Many…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-04-13 Shu Li , Peter Bühlmann

We introduce OpportunityFinder, a code-less framework for performing a variety of causal inference studies with panel data for non-expert users. In its current state, OpportunityFinder only requires users to provide raw observational data…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-09-26 Huy Nguyen , Prince Grover , Devashish Khatwani

Identification and manipulation of different GABAergic interneuron classes in the behaving animal are important to understand their role in circuit dynamics and behavior. The combination of optogenetics and large-scale neuronal recordings…

神经元与认知 · 定量生物学 2023-11-20 Lisa Roux , Eran Stark , Lucas Sjulson , György Buzsáki

In causal inference, interference occurs when the treatment of one unit may affect the outcomes of other units. The goal of this work is to serve as a guide to the use of linear outcome modeling for estimating causal effects in settings…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-04-01 Eric Tong , Salvador V. Balkus

Complex dynamical systems are prevalent in many scientific disciplines. In the analysis of such systems two aspects are of particular interest: 1) the temporal patterns along which they evolve and 2) the underlying causal mechanisms.…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-05-31 Nicolas-Domenic Reiter , Andreas Gerhardus , Jakob Runge

The regression discontinuity (RD) design is a popular approach to causal inference in non-randomized studies. This is because it can be used to identify and estimate causal effects under mild conditions. Specifically, for each subject, the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2014-02-11 George Karabatsos , Stephen G. Walker

Causal inference is central to statistics and scientific discovery, enabling researchers to identify cause-and-effect relationships beyond associations. While traditionally studied within Euclidean spaces, contemporary applications…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-07-01 Satarupa Bhattacharjee , Bing Li , Xiao Wu , Lingzhou Xue

This paper develops a class of potential outcomes models characterized by three main features: (i) Unobserved heterogeneity can be represented by a vector of potential outcomes and a type describing the manner in which an instrument…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2023-10-10 Manu Navjeevan , Rodrigo Pinto , Andres Santos

Inferring causal relationships from observational data is often challenging due to endogeneity. This paper provides new identification results for causal effects of discrete, ordered and continuous treatments using multiple binary…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2024-10-21 Nadja van 't Hoff