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We reveal that transformers trained in an autoregressive manner naturally encode time-delayed causal structures in their learned representations. When predicting future values in multivariate time series, the gradient sensitivities of…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-01-12 Xinyue Wang , Stephen Wang , Biwei Huang

Inferring causal structure poses a combinatorial search problem that typically involves evaluating structures with a score or independence test. The resulting search is costly, and designing suitable scores or tests that capture prior…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-12-16 Lars Lorch , Scott Sussex , Jonas Rothfuss , Andreas Krause , Bernhard Schölkopf

Structural Causal Models (SCMs) offer a principled framework to reason about interventions and support out-of-distribution generalization, which are key goals in scientific discovery. However, the task of learning SCMs from observed data…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-04-06 Divyat Mahajan , Jannes Gladrow , Agrin Hilmkil , Cheng Zhang , Meyer Scetbon

Causal influence measures for machine learnt classifiers shed light on the reasons behind classification, and aid in identifying influential input features and revealing their biases. However, such analyses involve evaluating the classifier…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2018-04-10 Shayak Sen , Piotr Mardziel , Anupam Datta , Matthew Fredrikson

Predicting the distribution of outcomes under hypothetical interventions is crucial across healthcare, economics, and policy-making. However, existing methods often require restrictive assumptions, and are typically limited by the lack of…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-08-11 Andreas Sauter , Saber Salehkaleybar , Aske Plaat , Erman Acar

Causal discovery from time series data encompasses many existing solutions, including those based on deep learning techniques. However, these methods typically do not endorse one of the most prevalent paradigms in deep learning: End-to-end…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-02-15 Gideon Stein , Maha Shadaydeh , Joachim Denzler

Methods of transfer learning try to combine knowledge from several related tasks (or domains) to improve performance on a test task. Inspired by causal methodology, we relax the usual covariate shift assumption and assume that it holds true…

机器学习 · 统计学 2018-09-25 Mateo Rojas-Carulla , Bernhard Schölkopf , Richard Turner , Jonas Peters

Using deep latent variable models in causal inference has attracted considerable interest recently, but an essential open question is their ability to yield consistent causal estimates. While they have demonstrated promising results and…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-01-25 Severi Rissanen , Pekka Marttinen

Real-world classification problems must contend with domain shift, the (potential) mismatch between the domain where a model is deployed and the domain(s) where the training data was gathered. Methods to handle such problems must specify…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-07-05 Yibo Jiang , Victor Veitch

On time-series data, most causal discovery methods fit a new model whenever they encounter samples from a new underlying causal graph. However, these samples often share relevant information which is lost when following this approach.…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2022-02-24 Sindy Löwe , David Madras , Richard Zemel , Max Welling

A key advance in learning generative models is the use of amortized inference distributions that are jointly trained with the models. We find that existing training objectives for variational autoencoders can lead to inaccurate amortized…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2018-05-31 Shengjia Zhao , Jiaming Song , Stefano Ermon

We introduce a novel framework for temporal causal discovery and inference that addresses two key challenges: complex nonlinear dependencies and spurious correlations. Our approach employs a multi-layer Transformer-based time-series…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-08-25 Jihua Huang , Yi Yao , Ajay Divakaran

The ability to learn and act in novel situations is still a prerogative of animate intelligence, as current machine learning methods mostly fail when moving beyond the standard i.i.d. setting. What is the reason for this discrepancy? Most…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2018-12-04 Niki Kilbertus , Giambattista Parascandolo , Bernhard Schölkopf

Causal discovery aims to learn causal relationships between variables from targeted data, making it a fundamental task in machine learning. However, causal discovery algorithms often rely on unverifiable causal assumptions, which are…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-10-15 Huiyang Yi , Yanyan He , Duxin Chen , Mingyu Kang , He Wang , Wenwu Yu

Learning causal relationships among a set of variables, as encoded by a directed acyclic graph, from observational data is complicated by the presence of unobserved confounders. Instrumental variables (IVs) are a popular remedy for this…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-04-17 Jing Zou , Wei Li , Wei Lin

Causal discovery from observational data is a challenging task that can only be solved up to a set of equivalent solutions, called an equivalence class. Such classes, which are often large in size, encode uncertainties about the orientation…

This work extends the theory of identifiability in supervised learning by considering the consequences of having access to a distribution of tasks. In such cases, we show that linear identifiability is achievable in the general multi-task…

机器学习 · 统计学 2024-08-26 Wenlin Chen , Julien Horwood , Juyeon Heo , José Miguel Hernández-Lobato

A topic of great current interest is Causal Representation Learning (CRL), whose goal is to learn a causal model for hidden features in a data-driven manner. Unfortunately, CRL is severely ill-posed since it is a combination of the two…

机器学习 · 统计学 2024-06-10 Hiroshi Morioka , Aapo Hyvärinen

Unmeasured confounding is a fundamental obstacle to causal inference from observational data. Latent-variable methods address this challenge by imputing unobserved confounders, yet many lack explicit model-based identification guarantees…

统计计算 · 统计学 2026-03-03 Yaxin Fang , Faming Liang

The task of causal representation learning aims to uncover latent higher-level causal variables that affect lower-level observations. Identifying the true latent causal variables from observed data, while allowing instantaneous causal…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-02-19 Yuhang Liu , Zhen Zhang , Dong Gong , Mingming Gong , Biwei Huang , Anton van den Hengel , Kun Zhang , Javen Qinfeng Shi
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