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Quantifying uncertainty and updating reliability are essential for ensuring the safety and performance of engineering systems. This study develops a hierarchical Bayesian modeling (HBM) framework to quantify uncertainty and update…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-12-31 Xinyu Jia , Weinan Hou , Costas Papadimitriou

There is much interest in the Hierarchical Dirichlet Process Hidden Markov Model (HDP-HMM) as a natural Bayesian nonparametric extension of the ubiquitous Hidden Markov Model for learning from sequential and time-series data. However, in…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2012-09-11 Matthew J. Johnson , Alan S. Willsky

The impressive performance of neural networks on natural language processing tasks attributes to their ability to model complicated word and phrase compositions. To explain how the model handles semantic compositions, we study hierarchical…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2020-06-16 Xisen Jin , Zhongyu Wei , Junyi Du , Xiangyang Xue , Xiang Ren

Probabilistic Graphical Models (PGM) are very useful in the fields of machine learning and data mining. The crucial limitation of those models,however, is the scalability. The Bayesian Network, which is one of the most common PGMs used in…

Algorithmic machine teaching studies the interaction between a teacher and a learner where the teacher selects labeled examples aiming at teaching a target hypothesis. In a quest to lower teaching complexity and to achieve more natural…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2019-10-25 Farnam Mansouri , Yuxin Chen , Ara Vartanian , Xiaojin Zhu , Adish Singla

In this study, we propose an axiomatic system to define and quantify the precise memorization and in-context reasoning effects used by the large language model (LLM) for language generation. These effects are formulated as non-linear…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-05-21 Siyu Lou , Yuntian Chen , Xiaodan Liang , Liang Lin , Quanshi Zhang

Sequential Bayesian inference can be used for continual learning to prevent catastrophic forgetting of past tasks and provide an informative prior when learning new tasks. We revisit sequential Bayesian inference and test whether having…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-01-09 Samuel Kessler , Adam Cobb , Tim G. J. Rudner , Stefan Zohren , Stephen J. Roberts

When analyzing real-world data it is common to work with event ensembles, which comprise sets of observations that collectively constrain the parameters of an underlying model of interest. Such models often have a hierarchical structure,…

机器学习 · 统计学 2024-02-22 Lukas Heinrich , Siddharth Mishra-Sharma , Chris Pollard , Philipp Windischhofer

Interpretability is a crucial aspect of machine learning models that enables humans to understand and trust the decision-making process of these models. In many real-world applications, the interpretability of models is essential for legal,…

机器学习 · 统计学 2023-07-18 Shree Charran R , Sandipan Das Mahapatra

Bayesian brain theory suggests that the brain employs generative models to understand the external world. The sampling-based perspective posits that the brain infers the posterior distribution through samples of stochastic neuronal…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2023-10-24 Xingsi Dong , Si Wu

This paper proposes a hierarchical generative model with a multi-grained latent variable to synthesize expressive speech. In recent years, fine-grained latent variables are introduced into the text-to-speech synthesis that enable the fine…

音频与语音处理 · 电气工程与系统科学 2021-12-28 Yukiya Hono , Kazuna Tsuboi , Kei Sawada , Kei Hashimoto , Keiichiro Oura , Yoshihiko Nankaku , Keiichi Tokuda

The challenges posed by high-dimensional data and use of the simplex constraint are two major concerns in the empirical application of the synthetic control method (SCM) in econometric studies. To address both issues simultaneously, we…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-12-02 Yihong Xu , Quan Zhou

A major focus of causal inference is the estimation of heterogeneous average treatment effects (HTE) - average treatment effects within strata of another variable of interest such as levels of a biomarker, education, or age strata.…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-01-05 Arman Oganisian , Nandita Mitra , Jason Roy

Recent works show that learning contextualized embeddings for words is beneficial for downstream tasks. BERT is one successful example of this approach. It learns embeddings by solving two tasks, which are masked language model (masked LM)…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2020-11-10 Çağla Aksoy , Alper Ahmetoğlu , Tunga Güngör

Sequence learning, prediction and replay have been proposed to constitute the universal computations performed by the neocortex. The Hierarchical Temporal Memory (HTM) algorithm realizes these forms of computation. It learns sequences in an…

神经元与认知 · 定量生物学 2022-07-21 Younes Bouhadjar , Dirk J. Wouters , Markus Diesmann , Tom Tetzlaff

Are certain cognitive biases mathematically inevitable consequences of sequential information processing? We prove that primacy effects, anchoring, and order-dependence are architecturally necessary in autoregressive language models due to…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2026-05-12 Jikun Wu , Dongxin Guo , Siu-Ming Yiu

Large Language Models (LLMs) exhibit a robust mastery of syntax when processing and generating text. While this suggests internalized understanding of hierarchical syntax and dependency relations, the precise mechanism by which they…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2025-11-11 Ananth Agarwal , Jasper Jian , Christopher D. Manning , Shikhar Murty

Comparison of appropriate models to describe observational data is a fundamental task of science. The Bayesian model evidence, or marginal likelihood, is a computationally challenging, yet crucial, quantity to estimate to perform Bayesian…

宇宙学与河外天体物理 · 物理学 2023-11-10 A. Spurio Mancini , M. M. Docherty , M. A. Price , J. D. McEwen

We propose a Bayesian generative model for incorporating prior domain knowledge into hierarchical topic modeling. Although embedded topic models (ETMs) and its variants have gained promising performance in text analysis, they mainly focus…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2022-09-29 Dongsheng Wang , Yishi Xu , Miaoge Li , Zhibin Duan , Chaojie Wang , Bo Chen , Mingyuan Zhou

The analysis of data from multiple experiments, such as observations of several individuals, is commonly approached using mixed-effects models, which account for variation between individuals through hierarchical representations. This makes…

统计计算 · 统计学 2026-03-05 Henrik Häggström , Sebastian Persson , Marija Cvijovic , Umberto Picchini