相关论文: Generating density nowcasts for U.S. GDP growth wi…

We apply artificial neural networks (ANNs) to nowcast quarterly GDP growth for the U.S. economy. Using the monthly FRED-MD database, we compare the nowcasting performance of five different ANN architectures: the multilayer perceptron (MLP),…

Artificial neural networks (ANNs) have been the catalyst to numerous advances in a variety of fields and disciplines in recent years. Their impact on economics, however, has been comparatively muted. One type of ANN, the long short-term…

Nowcasting can play a key role in giving policymakers timelier insight to data published with a significant time lag, such as final GDP figures. Currently, there are a plethora of methodologies and approaches for practitioners to choose…

Gross domestic product (GDP) nowcasting is crucial for policy-making as GDP growth is a key indicator of economic conditions. Dynamic factor models (DFMs) have been widely adopted by government agencies for GDP nowcasting due to their…

Alternative data sets are widely used for macroeconomic nowcasting together with machine learning--based tools. The latter are often applied without a complete picture of their theoretical nowcasting properties. Against this background,…

Deep neural networks (DNNs) have become integral to a wide range of scientific and practical applications due to their flexibility and strong predictive performance. Despite their accuracy, however, DNNs frequently exhibit poor calibration,…

We develop a novel Bayesian framework for dynamic modeling of mixed frequency data to nowcast quarterly U.S. GDP growth. The introduced framework utilizes foundational Bayesian theory and treats data sampled at different frequencies as…

Inspired by the success of Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) for supervised prediction in images, we design the Deconvolutional Generative Model (DGM), a new probabilistic generative model whose inference calculations correspond to those…

Neuroevolution is an active and growing research field, especially in times of increasingly parallel computing architectures. Learning methods for Artificial Neural Networks (ANN) can be divided into two groups. Neuroevolution is mainly…

This article investigates factor-augmented sparse MIDAS (Mixed Data Sampling) regressions for high-dimensional time series data, which may be observed at different frequencies. Our novel approach integrates sparse and dense dimensionality…

Deep neural networks (DNNs) are one of the most highlighted methods in machine learning. However, as DNNs are black-box models, they lack explanatory power for their predictions. Recently, neural additive models (NAMs) have been proposed to…

We investigate the predictive power of different machine learning algorithms to nowcast Madagascar's gross domestic product (GDP). We trained popular regression models, including linear regularized regression (Ridge, Lasso, Elastic-net),…

This paper investigates the benefits of internet search data in the form of Google Trends for nowcasting real U.S. GDP growth in real time through the lens of mixed frequency Bayesian Structural Time Series (BSTS) models. We augment and…

Deep neural networks (NNs) are known for their high-prediction performances. However, NNs are prone to yield unreliable predictions when encountering completely new situations without indicating their uncertainty. Bayesian variants of NNs…

Real-time economic information is essential for policy-making but difficult to obtain. We introduce a granular nowcasting method for macro- and industry-level GDP using a network approach and data on real-time monthly inter-industry…

Developing strong AI signifies the arrival of technological singularity, contributing greatly to advancing human civilization and resolving social issues. Neural networks (NNs) and deep learning, which utilize NNs, are expected to lead to…

Genetic programming (GP) is the state-of-the-art in financial automated feature construction task. It employs reverse polish expression to represent features and then conducts the evolution process. However, with the development of deep…

GDP is a vital measure of a country's economic health, reflecting the total value of goods and services produced. Forecasting GDP growth is essential for economic planning, as it helps governments, businesses, and investors anticipate…

Economic forecasting is concerned with the estimation of some variable like gross domestic product (GDP) in the next period given a set of variables that describes the current situation or state of the economy, including industrial…

Deep artificial neural networks (DNNs) are typically trained via gradient-based learning algorithms, namely backpropagation. Evolution strategies (ES) can rival backprop-based algorithms such as Q-learning and policy gradients on…