相关论文: Defining error accumulation in ML atmospheric simu…

Weather and atmospheric patterns are often persistent. The simplest weather forecasting method is the so-called persistence model, which assumes that the future state of a system will be similar (or equal) to the present state. Machine…

Atmospheric Extreme Events (EEs) cause severe damages to human societies and ecosystems. The frequency and intensity of EEs and other associated events are increasing in the current climate change and global warming risk. The accurate…

Projecting climate change is a generalization problem: we extrapolate the recent past using physical models across past, present, and future climates. Current climate models require representations of processes that occur at scales smaller…

Machine learning (ML) is a revolutionary technology with demonstrable applications across multiple disciplines. Within the Earth science community, ML has been most visible for weather forecasting, producing forecasts that rival modern…

Weather is a phenomenon that affects everything and everyone around us on a daily basis. Weather prediction has been an important point of study for decades as researchers have tried to predict the weather and climatic changes using…

The parameterization of moist convection contributes to uncertainty in climate modeling and numerical weather prediction. Machine learning (ML) can be used to learn new parameterizations directly from high-resolution model output, but it…

Accurate and computationally-viable representations of clouds and turbulence are a long-standing challenge for climate model development. Traditional parameterizations that crudely but efficiently approximate these processes are a leading…

There has been a recent surge in development of accurate machine learning (ML) weather prediction models, but evaluation of these models has mainly been focused on medium-range forecasts, not their performance in cycling data assimilation…

Accurately representing surface precipitation is crucial for the operational use of weather and climate models. Presently, global numerical weather prediction (NWP) models struggle to accurately generate precipitation due to their…

Climate models are complicated software systems that approximate atmospheric and oceanic fluid mechanics at a coarse spatial resolution. Typical climate forecasts only explicitly resolve processes larger than 100 km and approximate any…

An exponential growth in computing power, which has brought more sophisticated and higher resolution simulations of the climate system, and an exponential increase in observations since the first weather satellite was put in orbit, are…

Machine learning models for the global atmosphere that are capable of producing stable, multi-year simulations of Earth's climate have recently been developed. However, the ability of these ML models to generalize beyond the training…

Machine-learning (ML) parameterizations of subgrid processes (here of turbulence, convection, and radiation) may one day replace conventional parameterizations by emulating high-resolution physics without the cost of explicit simulation.…

Dynamical systems that evolve continuously over time are ubiquitous throughout science and engineering. Machine learning (ML) provides data-driven approaches to model and predict the dynamics of such systems. A core issue with this approach…

Using a dynamical model to make predictions about a system has many sources of error. These can include errors in how the model was initialised but also errors in the dynamics of the model itself. For many applications in data assimilation,…

Producing high-quality forecasts of key climate variables, such as temperature and precipitation, on subseasonal time scales has long been a gap in operational forecasting. This study explores an application of machine learning (ML) models…

Training an AI/ML system on simulated data while using that system to infer on data from real detectors introduces a systematic error which is difficult to estimate and in many analyses is simply not confronted. It is crucial to minimize…

We develop multiple Deep Learning (DL) models that advance the state-of-the-art predictions of the global auroral particle precipitation. We use observations from low Earth orbiting spacecraft of the electron energy flux to develop a model…

Machine learning (ML) is about computational methods that enable machines to learn concepts from experience. In handling a wide variety of experience ranging from data instances, knowledge, constraints, to rewards, adversaries, and lifelong…

Multiple studies have now demonstrated that machine learning (ML) can give improved skill for predicting or simulating fairly typical weather events, for tasks such as short-term and seasonal weather forecasting, downscaling simulations to…