相关论文: Joint Prediction Regions for time-series models

We introduce Joint Coverage Regions (JCRs), which unify confidence intervals and prediction regions in frequentist statistics. Specifically, joint coverage regions aim to cover a pair formed by an unknown fixed parameter (such as the mean…

Prediction intervals in supervised Machine Learning bound the region where the true outputs of new samples may fall. They are necessary in the task of separating reliable predictions of a trained model from near random guesses, minimizing…

Conformal Prediction offers a powerful framework for quantifying uncertainty in machine learning models, enabling the construction of prediction sets with finite-sample validity guarantees. While easily adaptable to non-probabilistic…

Conformal prediction provides machine learning models with prediction sets that offer theoretical guarantees, but the underlying assumption of exchangeability limits its applicability to time series data. Furthermore, existing approaches…

High-dimensional time series forecasting suffers from severe overfitting when the number of predictors exceeds available observations, making standard local projection methods unstable and unreliable. We propose an enhanced Random Subspace…

We develop joint confidence regions for linear regression coefficients when the regressors and errors are jointly stationary and ergodic with unspecified serial dependence. The method applies random smoothing, using an independent auxiliary…

A rich set of frequentist model averaging methods has been developed, but their applications have largely been limited to point prediction, as measuring prediction uncertainty in general settings remains an open problem. In this paper we…

The bootstrap procedure has emerged as a general framework to construct prediction intervals for future observations in autoregressive time series models. Such models with outlying data points are standard in real data applications,…

In modern biomedical and econometric studies, longitudinal processes are often characterized by complex time-varying associations and abrupt regime shifts that are shared across correlated outcomes. Standard functional data analysis (FDA)…

We explore a novel methodology for constructing confidence regions for parameters of linear models, using predictions from any arbitrary predictor. Our framework requires minimal assumptions on the noise and can be extended to functions…

Local Polynomial Regression (LPR) is a widely used nonparametric method for modeling complex relationships due to its flexibility and simplicity. It estimates a regression function by fitting low-degree polynomials to localized subsets of…

The recent decade has seen an enormous rise in the popularity of deep learning and neural networks. These algorithms have broken many previous records and achieved remarkable results. Their outstanding performance has significantly sped up…

Predicting missing segments in partially observed functions is challenging due to infinite-dimensionality, complex dependence within and across observations, and irregular noise. These challenges are further exacerbated by the existence of…

Existing inferential methods for small area data involve a trade-off between maintaining area-level frequentist coverage rates and improving inferential precision via the incorporation of indirect information. In this article, we propose a…

Forecasting the weather is an increasingly data intensive exercise. Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models are becoming more complex, with higher resolutions, and there are increasing numbers of different models in operation. While the…

Conformal prediction is a statistical tool for producing prediction regions of machine learning models that are valid with high probability. However, applying conformal prediction to time series data leads to conservative prediction…

Machine learning models can assign fixed predictions that preclude individuals from changing their outcome. Existing approaches to audit fixed predictions do so on a pointwise basis, which requires access to an existing dataset of…

Robust design has been widely recognized as a leading method in reducing variability and improving quality. Most of the engineering statistics literature mainly focuses on finding "point estimates" of the optimum operating conditions for…

Time series forecasting has received wide interest from existing research due to its broad applications and inherent challenging. The research challenge lies in identifying effective patterns in historical series and applying them to future…

Rapid progress in the field of machine-learning for weather prediction has led to the emergence of algorithms whose forecasting skill can exceed that of traditional physically based models. This development represents an opportunity to…