相关论文: Multi-Source Conformal Inference Under Distributio…

Instrumental variable methods have been widely used to identify causal effects in the presence of unmeasured confounding. A key identification condition known as the exclusion restriction states that the instrument cannot have a direct…

Understanding the dose-response relation between a continuous treatment and the outcome for an individual can greatly drive decision-making, particularly in areas like personalized drug dosing and personalized healthcare interventions.…

A rich set of frequentist model averaging methods has been developed, but their applications have largely been limited to point prediction, as measuring prediction uncertainty in general settings remains an open problem. In this paper we…

An important goal common to domain adaptation and causal inference is to make accurate predictions when the distributions for the source (or training) domain(s) and target (or test) domain(s) differ. In many cases, these different…

Recently, interest has grown in the use of proxy variables of unobserved confounding for inferring the causal effect in the presence of unmeasured confounders from observational data. One difficulty inhibiting the practical use is finding…

The goal of data attribution is to trace the model's predictions through the learning algorithm and back to its training data. thereby identifying the most influential training samples and understanding how the model's behavior leads to…

Conformal prediction is an uncertainty quantification method that constructs a prediction set for a previously unseen datum, ensuring the true label is included with a predetermined coverage probability. Adaptive conformal prediction has…

Predictive variability due to data ambiguities has typically been addressed via construction of dedicated models with built-in probabilistic capabilities that are trained to predict uncertainty estimates as variables of interest. These…

This dissertation focuses on modern causal inference under uncertainty and data restrictions, with applications to neoadjuvant clinical trials, distributed data networks, and robust individualized decision making. In the first project, we…

We propose to meta-learn causal structures based on how fast a learner adapts to new distributions arising from sparse distributional changes, e.g. due to interventions, actions of agents and other sources of non-stationarities. We show…

Collaboration between different data centers is often challenged by heterogeneity across sites. To account for the heterogeneity, the state-of-the-art method is to re-weight the covariate distributions in each site to match the distribution…

Often in prediction tasks, the predictive model itself can influence the distribution of the target variable, a phenomenon termed performative prediction. Generally, this influence stems from strategic actions taken by stakeholders with a…

Causal inference is a critical research topic across many domains, such as statistics, computer science, education, public policy and economics, for decades. Nowadays, estimating causal effect from observational data has become an appealing…

Conformal prediction, and split conformal prediction as a specific implementation, offer a distribution-free approach to estimating prediction intervals with statistical guarantees. Recent work has shown that split conformal prediction can…

While machine learning is rapidly being developed and deployed in health settings such as influenza prediction, there are critical challenges in using data from one environment in another due to variability in features; even within disease…

Conformal prediction provides a distribution-free framework for uncertainty quantification via prediction sets with exact finite-sample coverage. In low dimensions these sets are easy to interpret, but in high-dimensional or structured…

Predictive models make mistakes. Hence, there is a need to quantify the uncertainty associated with their predictions. Conformal inference has emerged as a powerful tool to create statistically valid prediction regions around point…

Data collection is a critical component of modern statistical and machine learning pipelines, particularly when data must be gathered from multiple heterogeneous sources to study a target population of interest. In many use cases, such as…

We develop scalable methods for producing conformal Bayesian predictive intervals with finite sample calibration guarantees. Bayesian posterior predictive distributions, $p(y \mid x)$, characterize subjective beliefs on outcomes of…

Researchers often face choices between multiple data sources that differ in quality, cost, and representativeness. Which sources will most improve predictive performance? We study this data prioritization problem under a random distribution…