相关论文: From Probability to Counterfactuals: the Increasin…
Pearl's Causal Hierarchy (PCH) is a central framework for reasoning about probabilistic, interventional, and counterfactual statements, yet the satisfiability problem for PCH formulas is computationally intractable in almost all classical…
We study the complexity of satisfiability problems in probabilistic and causal reasoning. Given random variables $X_1, X_2,\ldots$ over finite domains, the basic terms are probabilities of propositional formulas over atomic events $X_i =…
We propose a formalization of the three-tier causal hierarchy of association, intervention, and counterfactuals as a series of probabilistic logical languages. Our languages are of strictly increasing expressivity, the first capable of…
Many researchers have voiced their support towards Pearl's counterfactual theory of causation as a stepping stone for AI/ML research's ultimate goal of intelligent systems. As in any other growing subfield, patience seems to be a virtue…
We study formal languages which are capable of fully expressing quantitative probabilistic reasoning and do-calculus reasoning for causal effects, from a computational complexity perspective. We focus on satisfiability problems whose…
Many tasks in statistical and causal inference can be construed as problems of \emph{entailment} in a suitable formal language. We ask whether those problems are more difficult, from a computational perspective, for \emph{causal}…
Ibeling et al. (2023). axiomatize increasingly expressive languages of causation and probability, and Mosse et al. (2024) show that reasoning (specifically the satisfiability problem) in each causal language is as difficult, from a…
Structural causal models are the basic modelling unit in Pearl's causal theory; in principle they allow us to solve counterfactuals, which are at the top rung of the ladder of causation. But they often contain latent variables that limit…
In [4], we introduced an extension of team semantics (causal teams) which assigns an interpretation to interventionist counterfactuals and causal notions based on them (as e.g. in Pearl's and Woodward's manipulationist approaches to…
We introduce a formalism for the evaluation of counterfactual queries in the framework of quantum causal models, generalising Pearl's semantics for counterfactuals in classical causal models, thus completing the last rung in the quantum…
Interpretability research on large language models (LLMs) has yielded important insights into model behaviour, yet recurring pitfalls persist: findings that do not generalise, and causal interpretations that outrun the evidence. Our…
Pearl's causal hierarchy has garnered sustained attention as a foundational lens for formulating and understanding causal questions, and has been extensively discussed within the framework of structural causal models. In this paper, we…
Counterfactual explanations (CEs) are methods for generating an alternative scenario that produces a different desirable outcome. For example, if a student is predicted to fail a course, then counterfactual explanations can provide the…
Counterfactual reasoning, a cornerstone of human cognition and decision-making, is often seen as the 'holy grail' of causal learning, with applications ranging from interpreting machine learning models to promoting algorithmic fairness.…
With recent advances in natural language processing, rationalization becomes an essential self-explaining diagram to disentangle the black box by selecting a subset of input texts to account for the major variation in prediction. Yet,…
Counterfactual reasoning aims at answering contrary-to-fact questions like ``Would have Alice recovered had she taken aspirin?'' and corresponds to the most fine-grained layer of causation. Critically, while many counterfactual statements…
Causal models defined in terms of structural equations have proved to be quite a powerful way of representing knowledge regarding causality. However, a number of authors have given examples that seem to show that the Halpern-Pearl (HP)…
Explainable recommendation systems leverage transparent reasoning to foster user trust and improve decision-making processes. Current approaches typically decouple recommendation generation from explanation creation, violating causal…
I develop a novel semantics for probabilities of counterfactuals that generalizes the standard Pearlian semantics: it applies to probabilistic causal models that cannot be extended into realistic structural causal models and are therefore…
This paper explores the space of (propositional) probabilistic logical languages, ranging from a purely `qualitative' comparative language to a highly `quantitative' language involving arbitrary polynomials over probability terms. While…