相关论文: Toward a live homogeneous database of solar active…
The solar dipole moment at cycle minimum is considered to be the most successful precursor for the amplitude of the subsequent cycle. Numerical simulations of the surface flux transport (SFT) model are widely used to effectively predict the…
Recent studies indicate that a small number of rogue solar active regions (ARs) may have a significant impact on the end-of-cycle polar field and the long-term behavior of solar activity. The impact of individual ARs can be qualified based…
The solar cycle is generated by a magnetohydrodynamic dynamo mechanism which involves the induction and recycling of the toroidal and poloidal components of the Sun's magnetic field. Recent observations indicate that the Babcock-Leighton…
Data for 3046 solar active regions (ARs) observed since May 12, 1996 to December 27, 2021 were utilized to explore how the magnetic fluxes from ARs of different complexity follow the solar cycle. Magnetograms from the Michelson Doppler…
We investigate how representing active regions with bipolar magnetic regions (BMRs) affects the end-of-cycle polar field predicted by the surface flux transport model. Our study is based on a new database of BMRs derived from the SDO/HMI…
The purpose of this paper is to show that large active regions (ARs) with different magnetic configurations have different contributions to short-term and long-term variations of the Sun. As a case study, the complex $\delta$-type AR 12673…
We test recent claims that the polar field at the end of Cycle 23 was weakened by a small number of large, abnormally oriented regions, and investigate what this means for solar cycle prediction. We isolate the contribution of individual…
Long observational series for bipolar active regions (ARs) provide significant information about the mutual transformation of the poloidal and toroidal components of the global solar magnetic field. The direction of the toroidal field…
Decay and dispersal of the tilted Bipolar Magnetic Regions (BMRs) on the solar surface are observed to produce large-scale poloidal field, which acts as the seed for the toroidal field and, thus, the next sunspot cycle. However, various…
The evolution of solar surface magnetic fields is essential for understanding solar activity and the underlying dynamic process. The surface flux transport (SFT) model is a widely used and effective tool for simulating this evolution.…
Context: Solar active regions (ARs) are key manifestations of the Sun's magnetic activity, displaying diverse spatial and temporal characteristics. Their formation and evolution play a crucial role in understanding the solar dynamo and…
An algebraic method for the reconstruction and potentially prediction of the solar dipole moment value at sunspot minimum (known to be a good predictor of the amplitude of the next solar cycle) was suggested in the first paper in this…
The need for reliable predictions of the solar activity cycle motivates the development of dynamo models incorporating a representation of surface processes sufficiently detailed to allow assimilation of magnetographic data. In this series…
The systematic variation of solar active region (AR) properties with their magnetic flux has been the subject of numerous studies but the proposed scaling laws still vary rather widely. A correct representation of these laws and the…
We model the physical parameters of Solar Cycles 23 and 24 using a nonlinear dynamical mean-field dynamo model that includes the formation and evolution of bipolar magnetic regions (BMR). The Parker-type dynamo model consists of a complete…
Although systematic measurements of the solar polar magnetic field exist only from mid 1970s, other proxies can be used to infer the polar field at earlier times. The observational data indicate a strong correlation between the polar field…
The solar dipole moment at activity minimum is a good predictor of the strength of the subsequent solar cycle. Through a systematic analysis using a state-of-the-art 2$\times$2 D solar dynamo model, we found that bipolar magnetic regions…
The origin of cycle-to-cycle variations in solar activity is currently the focus of much interest. It has recently been pointed out that large individual active regions with atypical properties can have a significant impact on the long term…
The changing magnetic fields of the Sun are generated and maintained by a solar dynamo, the exact nature of which remains an unsolved fundamental problem in solar physics. Our objective in this paper is to investigate the role and impact of…
We explore the cause of the solar cycle variabilities using a novel 3D Babcock--Leighton dynamo model. In this model, based on the toroidal flux at the base of the convection zone, bipolar magnetic regions (BMRs) are produced with…