相关论文: FuXi-ENS: A machine learning model for medium-rang…

When extreme weather events affect large areas, their regional to sub-continental spatial scale is important for their impacts. We propose a novel machine learning (ML) framework that integrates spatial extreme-value theory to model weather…

Since the weather is chaotic, forecasts aim to predict the distribution of future states rather than make a single prediction. Recently, multiple data driven weather models have emerged claiming breakthroughs in skill. However, these have…

Machine learning for weather prediction increasingly relies on ensemble methods to provide probabilistic forecasts. Diffusion-based models have shown strong performance in Limited-Area Modeling (LAM) but remain computationally expensive at…

Multi-model ensemble analysis integrates information from multiple climate models into a unified projection. However, existing integration approaches based on model averaging can dilute fine-scale spatial information and incur bias from…

Robust quantification of predictive uncertainty is critical for understanding factors that drive weather and climate outcomes. Ensembles provide predictive uncertainty estimates and can be decomposed physically, but both physics and machine…

Quantum Machine Learning (QML) presents as a revolutionary approach to weather forecasting by using quantum computing to improve predictive modeling capabilities. In this study, we apply QML models, including Quantum Gated Recurrent Units…

An influential step in weather forecasting was the introduction of ensemble forecasts in operational use due to their capability to account for the uncertainties in the future state of the atmosphere. However, ensemble weather forecasts are…

A forecasting ensemble consisting of a diverse range of estimators for both local and global univariate forecasting, in particular MQ-CNN,DeepAR, Prophet, NPTS, ARIMA and ETS, can be used to make forecasts for a variety of problems. This…

We present a parsimonious deep learning weather prediction model to forecast seven atmospheric variables with 3-h time resolution for up to one-year lead times on a 110-km global mesh using the Hierarchical Equal Area isoLatitude…

General circulation models (GCMs) are the foundation of weather and climate prediction. GCMs are physics-based simulators which combine a numerical solver for large-scale dynamics with tuned representations for small-scale processes such as…

We present FastNet version 1.0, a data-driven medium range numerical weather prediction (NWP) model based on a Graph Neural Network architecture, developed jointly between the Alan Turing Institute and the Met Office. FastNet uses an…

Weather prediction today is performed with numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. These are deterministic simulation models describing the dynamics of the atmosphere, and evolving the current conditions forward in time to obtain a…

Seamless forecasting that produces warning information at continuum timescales based on only one system is a long-standing pursuit for weather-climate service. While the rapid advancement of deep learning has induced revolutionary changes…

Nowadays, weather prediction is based on numerical weather prediction (NWP) models to produce an ensemble of forecasts. Despite of large improvements over the last few decades, they still tend to exhibit systematic bias and dispersion…

Modern climate projections lack adequate spatial and temporal resolution due to computational constraints, leading to inaccuracies in representing critical processes like thunderstorms that occur on the sub-resolution scale. Hybrid methods…

The demand for high-resolution information on climate change is critical for accurate projections and decision-making. Presently, this need is addressed through high-resolution climate models or downscaling. High-resolution models are…

The growing integration of power electronic-based technologies has increased the necessity of power quality (PQ) monitoring in transmission systems. Although large datasets are collected by operators, their use is typically limited to…

Multimodel ensembling has been widely used to improve climate model predictions, and the improvement strongly depends on the ensembling scheme. In this work, we propose a Bayesian neural network (BNN) ensembling method, which combines…

In this paper, we present Pangu-Weather, a deep learning based system for fast and accurate global weather forecast. For this purpose, we establish a data-driven environment by downloading $43$ years of hourly global weather data from the…

Accurate and computationally-viable representations of clouds and turbulence are a long-standing challenge for climate model development. Traditional parameterizations that crudely but efficiently approximate these processes are a leading…