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Throughout the COVID-19 pandemic, government policy and healthcare implementation responses have been guided by reported positivity rates and counts of positive cases in the community. The selection bias of these data calls into question…

应用统计 · 统计学 2021-04-12 Len Covello , Andrew Gelman , Yajuan Si , Siquan Wang

Multilevel regression and poststratification (MRP) is a computationally efficient indirect estimation method that can quickly produce improved population-adjusted estimates with limited data. Recent computational advancements allow…

应用统计 · 统计学 2025-05-07 Aja Sutton , Zack W. Almquist , Jon Wakefield

Health disparity research often evaluates health outcomes across demographic subgroups. Multilevel regression and poststratification (MRP) is a popular approach for small subgroup estimation due to its ability to stabilize estimates by…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-06-26 Katherine Li , Yajuan Si

Multilevel regression and poststratification (MRP) is a flexible modeling technique that has been used in a broad range of small-area estimation problems. Traditionally, MRP studies have been focused on non-causal settings, where estimating…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-01-24 Yuxiang Gao , Lauren Kennedy , Daniel Simpson

Surveys provide important evidence for policymaking, decision-making, and understanding of society. However, conducting the large surveys required to provide subpopulation level estimates is expensive and time-consuming. Multilevel…

应用统计 · 统计学 2022-05-26 Dewi Amaliah

Multilevel regression and poststratification (MRP) is a popular method for addressing selection bias in subgroup estimation, with broad applications across fields from social sciences to public health. In this paper, we examine the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-03-06 Yajuan Si

A central theme in the field of survey statistics is estimating population-level quantities through data coming from potentially non-representative samples of the population. Multilevel Regression and Poststratification (MRP), a model-based…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2020-07-17 Yuxiang Gao , Lauren Kennedy , Daniel Simpson , Andrew Gelman

Psychology research focuses on interactions, and this has deep implications for inference from non-representative samples. For the goal of estimating average treatment effects, we propose to fit a model allowing treatment to interact with…

应用统计 · 统计学 2020-04-15 Lauren Kennedy , Andrew Gelman

Call detail records (CDR) from mobile phone networks are widely used to study human mobility however CDR data from a single mobile operator are inherently biased because the observed users do not mirror the population distribution. Using…

物理与社会 · 物理学 2026-04-20 Leo Ferres , Laetitia Gauvin

We present CRISP (COVID-19 Risk Score Prediction), a probabilistic graphical model for COVID-19 infection spread through a population based on the SEIR model where we assume access to (1) mutual contacts between pairs of individuals across…

社会与信息网络 · 计算机科学 2022-07-04 Ralf Herbrich , Rajeev Rastogi , Roland Vollgraf

Subsampling is a widely used and effective approach for addressing the computational challenges posed by massive datasets. Substantial progress has been made in developing non-uniform, probability-based subsampling schemes that prioritize…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-05-07 Dingyi Wang , Haiying Wang , Qingpei Hu

The visual modeling method enables flexible interactions with rich graphical depictions of data and supports the exploration of the complexities of epidemiological analysis. However, most epidemiology visualizations do not support the…

应用统计 · 统计学 2023-04-25 Yu Dong , Christy Jie Liang , Yi Chen , Jie Hua

Mendelian randomization (MR) is a pivotal tool in genetics, genomics, and epidemiology, leveraging genetic variants as instrumental variables to infer causal relationships between exposures and outcomes. Traditional MR methods, while…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-01-15 Bitan Sarkar , Yuchao Jiang , Tian Ge , Yang Ni

The present paper introduces a data-driven framework for describing the time-varying nature of an SIRD model in the context of COVID-19. By embedding a rolling regression in a mixed integer bilevel nonlinear programming problem, our aim is…

种群与进化 · 定量生物学 2021-03-04 Javier Rubio-Herrero , Yuchen Wang

The comparison of subnational areas is ubiquitous but survey samples of these areas are often biased or prohibitively small. Researchers turn to methods such as multilevel regression and poststratification (MRP) to improve the efficiency of…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-05-13 Shiro Kuriwaki , Soichiro Yamauchi

The spread of COVID-19 makes it essential to investigate its prevalence. In such investigation research, as far as we know, the widely-used sampling methods didn't use the information sufficiently about the numbers of the previously…

应用统计 · 统计学 2022-01-04 Ze Liu , Siyu Yi , Jianghu , Dong , Min-Qian Liu , Yongdao Zhou

In the November 2016 U.S. presidential election, many state level public opinion polls, particularly in the Upper Midwest, incorrectly predicted the winning candidate. One leading explanation for this polling miss is that the precipitous…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2021-11-15 Eli Ben-Michael , Avi Feller , Erin Hartman

Mathematical models of SARS-CoV-2 spread are used for guiding the design of mitigation steps aimed at containing and decelerating the contagion, and at identifying impending breaches of health care system surge capacity. The challenges of…

种群与进化 · 定量生物学 2020-06-17 Daniela Calvetti , Alexander Hoover , Johnie Rose , Erkki Somersalo

Reduced-Rank (RR) regression is a powerful dimensionality reduction technique but it overlooks any possible group configuration among the responses by assuming a low-rank structure on the entire coefficient matrix. Moreover, the temporal…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-12-22 Maria F. Pintado , Matteo Iacopini , Luca Rossini , Alexander Y. Shestopaloff

We propose a general Bayesian approach to modeling epidemics such as COVID-19. The approach grew out of specific analyses conducted during the pandemic, in particular an analysis concerning the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions…

应用统计 · 统计学 2021-01-01 Samir Bhatt , Neil Ferguson , Seth Flaxman , Axel Gandy , Swapnil Mishra , James A. Scott
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