相关论文: Bayesian evidence estimation from posterior sample…

In real-world Bayesian inference applications, prior assumptions regarding the parameters of interest may be unrepresentative of their actual values for a given dataset. In particular, if the likelihood is concentrated far out in the wings…

Undirected graphical models are widely used in statistics, physics and machine vision. However Bayesian parameter estimation for undirected models is extremely challenging, since evaluation of the posterior typically involves the…

The Bayesian Synthetic Likelihood (BSL) method is a widely-used tool for likelihood-free Bayesian inference. This method assumes that some summary statistics are normally distributed, which can be incorrect in many applications. We propose…

The multivariate extended skew-normal distribution allows for accommodating raw data which are skewed and heavy tailed, and has at least three appealing statistical properties, namely closure under conditioning, affine transformations, and…

We propose a machine-learning algorithm for Bayesian inverse problems in the function-space regime based on one-step generative transport. Building on the Mean Flows, we learn a fully conditional amortized sampler with a neural-operator…

We propose a measure of the impact of any two choices of prior distributions by quantifying the Wasserstein distance between the respective resulting posterior distributions at any fixed sample size. We illustrate this measure on the…

We present the learned harmonic mean estimator with normalizing flows - a robust, scalable and flexible estimator of the Bayesian evidence for model comparison. Since the estimator is agnostic to sampling strategy and simply requires…

In this article, we consider the problem of estimating the parameters of the Fr\'echet distribution from both frequentist and Bayesian points of view. First we briefly describe different frequentist approaches, namely, maximum likelihood,…

Bayesian hypothesis testing is re-examined from the perspective of an a priori assessment of the test statistic distribution under the alternative. By assessing the distribution of an observable test statistic, rather than prior parameter…

Sampling from the posterior is a key technical problem in Bayesian statistics. Rigorous guarantees are difficult to obtain for Markov Chain Monte Carlo algorithms of common use. In this paper, we study an alternative class of algorithms…

Neural networks are popular state-of-the-art models for many different tasks.They are often trained via back-propagation to find a value of the weights that correctly predicts the observed data. Although back-propagation has shown good…

Several rapid parameter estimation methods have recently been advanced to deal with the computational challenges of the problem of Bayesian inference of the properties of compact binary sources detected in the upcoming science runs of the…

This paper develops Bayesian sample size formulae for experiments comparing two groups. We assume the experimental data will be analysed in the Bayesian framework, where pre-experimental information from multiple sources can be represented…

We derive a novel generative model from iterative Gaussian posterior inference. By treating the generated sample as an unknown variable, we can formulate the sampling process in the language of Bayesian probability. Our model uses a…

This paper deals with some computational aspects in the Bayesian analysis of statistical models with intractable normalizing constants. In the presence of intractable normalizing constants in the likelihood function, traditional MCMC…

Testing the equality of two proportions is a common procedure in science, especially in medicine and public health. In these domains it is crucial to be able to quantify evidence for the absence of a treatment effect. Bayesian hypothesis…

Conventional approximations to Bayesian inference rely on either approximations by statistics such as mean and covariance or by point particles. Recent advances such as the ensemble Gaussian mixture filter have generalized these notions to…

The present operation of the ground-based network of gravitational-wave laser interferometers in "enhanced" configuration brings the search for gravitational waves into a regime where detection is highly plausible. The development of…

We present a detailed study of Bayesian inference workflows for pulsar timing array data with a focus on enhancing efficiency, robustness and speed through the use of normalizing flow-based nested sampling. Building on the Enterprise…

There is an ever-growing need in the gravitational wave community for fast and reliable inference methods, accompanied by an informative error bar. Nested sampling satisfies the last two requirements, but its computational cost can become…