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Time series foundation models (TSFMs) offer strong zero-shot forecasting via large-scale pre-training, yet fine-tuning remains critical for boosting performance in domains with limited public data. With the growing number of TSFMs,…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-09-30 Qingren Yao , Ming Jin , Chengqi Zhang , Chao-Han Huck Yang , Jun Qi , Shirui Pan

Recently, there has been a surge of Transformer-based solutions for the long-term time series forecasting (LTSF) task. Despite the growing performance over the past few years, we question the validity of this line of research in this work.…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2022-08-18 Ailing Zeng , Muxi Chen , Lei Zhang , Qiang Xu

Time series forecasting (TSF) is a central problem in time series analysis. However, as the number of channels in time series datasets scales to the thousands or more, a scenario we define as High-Dimensional Time Series Forecasting…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-09-30 Juntong Ni , Shiyu Wang , Zewen Liu , Xiaoming Shi , Xinyue Zhong , Zhou Ye , Wei Jin

The continued digitization of societal processes translates into a proliferation of time series data that cover applications such as fraud detection, intrusion detection, and energy management, where anomaly detection is often essential to…

Time series are ubiquitous in real-world scenarios and crucial for applications ranging from energy management to traffic control. Consequently, the ability to reason over time series is a fundamental skill for generalist models to solve…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2026-05-11 Fangxu Yu , Xingang Guo , Lingzhi Yuan , Haoqiang Kang , Hongyu Zhao , Lianhui Qin , Furong Huang , Bin Hu , Tianyi Zhou

Time series forecasting, which aims to predict future values based on historical data, has garnered significant attention due to its broad range of applications. However, real-world time series often exhibit complex non-uniform distribution…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-10-02 Yanru Sun , Zongxia Xie , Emadeldeen Eldele , Dongyue Chen , Qinghua Hu , Min Wu

Multivariate time-series (MTS) forecasting is fundamental to applications ranging from urban mobility and resource management to climate modeling. While recent generative models based on denoising diffusion have advanced state-of-the-art…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-11-21 Seyed Mohamad Moghadas , Bruno Cornelis , Adrian Munteanu

The proliferation of Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) has significantly advanced zero-shot forecasting, enabling predictions for unseen time series without task-specific fine-tuning. Extensive research has confirmed that no single TSFM…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-09-26 Hao-Nan Shi , Ting-Ji Huang , Lu Han , De-Chuan Zhan , Han-Jia Ye

Recent progress in foundation models has enabled strong zero-shot performance for time series forecasting. In this work, we show that such capabilities can also emerge from tabular foundation models. We introduce TabPFN-TS, a simple method…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-01-28 Shi Bin Hoo , Samuel Müller , David Salinas , Frank Hutter

Irregular multivariate time series forecasting (IMTSF) is challenging due to non-uniform sampling and variable asynchronicity. These irregularities violate the equidistant assumptions of standard models, hindering local temporal modeling…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-02-03 Xiangfei Qiu , Kangjia Yan , Xvyuan Liu , Xingjian Wu , Jilin Hu

Multivariate time series forecasting (MTSF) is a critical task with broad applications in domains such as meteorology, transportation, and economics. Nevertheless, pervasive missing values caused by sensor failures or human errors…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-06-23 Kai Tang , Ji Zhang , Hua Meng , Minbo Ma , Qi Xiong , Fengmao Lv , Jie Xu , Tianrui Li

The explosion of Time Series (TS) data, driven by advancements in technology, necessitates sophisticated analytical methods. Modern management systems increasingly rely on analyzing this data, highlighting the importance of effcient…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-03-27 Seyedeh Azadeh Fallah Mortezanejad , Ruochen Wang

Time series anomaly detection (TSAD) plays an important role in many domains such as finance, transportation, and healthcare. With the ongoing instrumentation of reality, more time series data will be available, leading also to growing…

Deciding the best future execution time is a critical task in many business activities while evolving time series forecasting, and optimal timing strategy provides such a solution, which is driven by observed data. This solution has plenty…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2023-10-10 Chen Pan , Fan Zhou , Xuanwei Hu , Xinxin Zhu , Wenxin Ning , Zi Zhuang , Siqiao Xue , James Zhang , Yunhua Hu

Large-scale renewable energy deployment introduces pronounced volatility into the electricity system, turning grid operation into a complex stochastic optimization problem. Accurate electricity price forecasting (EPF) is essential not only…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-04-17 Jan Niklas Lettner , Hadeer El Ashhab , Veit Hagenmeyer , Benjamin Schäfer

Time-series forecasting is an essential task with wide real-world applications across domains. While recent advances in deep learning have enabled time-series forecasting models with accurate predictions, there remains considerable debate…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-03-26 Zhiyuan Zhao , Juntong Ni , Shangqing Xu , Haoxin Liu , Wei Jin , B. Aditya Prakash

Time series prediction algorithms are increasingly central to decision-making in high-stakes domains such as healthcare, energy management, and economic planning. Yet, these systems often inherit and amplify biases embedded in historical…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2025-12-19 Bagattini Alexander , Chen Shao

Time Series Foundation Models (TSFMs) have borrowed the long context paradigm from natural language processing under the premise that feeding more history into the model improves forecast quality. But in stochastic domains, distant history…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-05-12 Rishi Ahuja , Kumar Prateek , Simranjit Singh , Vijay Kumar

Recent advances in deep learning have driven rapid progress in time series forecasting, yet many state-of-the-art models continue to struggle with robust performance in real-world applications, even when they achieve strong results on…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-10-24 Qitai Tan , Yiyun Chen , Mo Li , Ruiwen Gu , Yilin Su , Xiao-Ping Zhang

The prevailing Direct Forecasting (DF) paradigm dominates Long-term Time Series Forecasting (LTSF) by forcing models to predict the entire future horizon in a single forward pass. While efficient, this rigid coupling of output and…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-02-03 Jiaming Ma , Siyuan Mu , Ruilin Tang , Haofeng Ma , Qihe Huang , Zhengyang Zhou , Pengkun Wang , Binwu Wang , Yang Wang