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Seasonal climate forecasts are being used increasingly across a range of application sectors. A recent UK governmental report asked: How good are seasonal climate forecasts on a scale of 1-5 (where 5 is very good), and how good can we…

The climate response to anthropogenic forcing has long been one of the dominant uncertainties in predicting future climate change (Houghton et al, 2001). Many observationally-based estimates of climate sensitivity (S) have been presented in…

Time, space, and matter are categories of our reasoning, whose properties appear to be fundamental. However, these require a scrutiny as in the extreme regime of the primordial universe these present quantum properties. What does it mean…

One purpose -- quite a few thinkers would say the main purpose -- of seeking knowledge about the world is to enhance our ability to make good decisions. An item of knowledge that can make no conceivable difference with regard to anything we…

The prediction that black holes radiate due to quantum effects is often considered one of the most secure in quantum field theory in curved space-time. Yet this prediction rests on two dubious assumptions: that ordinary physics may be…

How good is our universe at making habitable planets? The answer to this depends on which factors are important for life: Does a planet need to be Earth mass? Does it need to be inside the temperate zone? are systems with hot Jupiters…

Recently a certain thought experiment was discussed which involves the decoherence of a quantum system due to a black hole. Here we show how this phenomenon is consistent with standard ideas about quantum black holes. In other words,…

This paper describes some of the astronomical effects that could be important for understanding the ice ages, historic climate changes and the recent temperature increase. These include changes in the sun's luminosity, periodic changes in…

Prediction, where observed data is used to quantify uncertainty about a future observation, is a fundamental problem in statistics. Prediction sets with coverage probability guarantees are a common solution, but these do not provide…

Time is absolute in standard quantum theory and dynamical in general relativity. The combination of both theories into a theory of quantum gravity leads therefore to a "problem of time". In my essay I shall investigate those consequences…

It is argued that some of the recent claims for cosmology are grossly overblown. Cosmology rests on a very small database: it suffers from many fundamental difficulties as a science (if it is a science at all) whilst observations of distant…

On one popular view, the general covariance of gravity implies that change is relational in a strong sense, such that all it is for a physical degree of freedom to change is for it to vary with regard to a second physical degree of freedom.…

Assorted questions: Time as a parameter in Quantum Mechanics. No-Go theorems for a time operator. Localization, time and causality. Causality violation. Localization again. Lesson 1: Evading the troubles: Im E finite. Lights and shadows of…

In metaphysics, there are a number of distinct but related questions about the existence of "further facts" -- facts that are contingent relative to the physical structure of the universe. These include further facts about qualia, personal…

The role of time in quantum mechanics is discussed. The differences between ordinary observables and an observable which corresponds to the time of an event is examined. In particular, the time-of-arrival of a particle to a fixed location…

The evolution of a measured system and an experimental apparatus is presented in an unified form. Conditions under which the state of such a total system forms, evaluates and declines from a superposition of states are defined. The problem…

Here we define natural chaotic systems, like the earths weather and climate system, as chaotic systems which are open to the world so have constantly changing boundary conditions, and measurements of their states are subject to errors. In…

The climate change dispute is about changes over time of environmental characteristics (such as rainfall). Some people say that a possible change is not so much in the mean but rather in the extreme phenomena (that is, the average rainfall…

The notions of time in the theories of Newton and Einstein are reviewed so that certain of their assumptions are clarified. These assumptions will be seen as the causes of the incompatibility between the two different ways of understanding…

It has for ages been a rather constant feature of thinking in science to take it for granted that the respective thinking happens in realms which are totally outside and independent of all the other phenomena that constitute the objects of…