相关论文: Predicting Winning Lottery Numbers
As the technology advances, an ample amount of data is collected in sports with the help of advanced sensors. Sports Analytics is the study of this data to provide a constructive advantage to the team and its players. The game of…
Poker is a family of card games that includes many variations. We hypothesize that most poker games can be solved as a pattern matching problem, and propose creating a strong poker playing system based on a unified poker representation. Our…
Probabilistic, hierarchically coherent forecasting is a key problem in many practical forecasting applications -- the goal is to obtain coherent probabilistic predictions for a large number of time series arranged in a pre-specified tree…
Suppose that the outcomes of a roulette table are not entirely random, in the sense that there exists a successful betting strategy. Is there a successful `separable' strategy, in the sense that it does not use the winnings from betting on…
In recent years sports analytics has gotten more and more popular. We propose a model for Rugby data - in particular to model the 2014 Six Nations tournament. We propose a Bayesian hierarchical model to estimate the characteristics that…
From the climate system to the effect of the internet on society, chaotic systems appear to have a significant role in our future. Here a method of statistical learning for a class of chaotic systems is described along with underlying…
An evolutionary approach for computing the winning strategy for Nim-like games is proposed in this paper. The winning strategy is computed by using the Multi Expression Programming (MEP) technique - a fast and efficient variant of the…
A distribution matcher (DM) encodes a binary input data sequence into a sequence of symbols (codeword) with desired target probability distribution. The set of the output codewords constitutes a codebook (or code) of a DM.…
This study presents a rigorous mathematical approach to the optimization of round and betting policies in Blackjack, using Markov Decision Processes (MDP) and Expected Utility Theory. The analysis considers a direct confrontation between a…
How many fair coin tosses to choose 1 of $n$ options with uniform probability? Although a probability problem, the solution is essentially number-theoretic, with special roles for Mersenne numbers, Fermat numbers, and the haupt exponent. We…
We present a deep long short-term memory (LSTM)-based neural network for predicting asset prices, together with a successful trading strategy for generating profits based on the model's predictions. Our work is motivated by the fact that…
We study the use of Temporal-Difference learning for estimating the structural parameters in dynamic discrete choice models. Our algorithms are based on the conditional choice probability approach but use functional approximations to…
In a district-based election, we apply a voting rule $r$ to decide the winners in each district, and a candidate who wins in a maximum number of districts is the winner of the election. We present efficient sampling-based algorithms to…
We develop a probabilistic framework for deep learning based on the Deep Rendering Mixture Model (DRMM), a new generative probabilistic model that explicitly capture variations in data due to latent task nuisance variables. We demonstrate…
We formulate the statistics of the discrete multicomponent fragmentation event using a methodology borrowed from statistical mechanics. We generate the ensemble of all feasible distributions that can be formed when a single integer…
That there exist two losing games that can be combined, either by random mixture or by nonrandom alternation, to form a winning game is known as Parrondo's paradox. We establish a strong law of large numbers and a central limit theorem for…
We studied two probabilistic models of the distribution of primes in the natural number [1].The paper considers the third probabilistic model of the distribution of primes in the natural number. The author proved that the results obtained…
The lottery ticket hypothesis posits the existence of ``winning tickets'' within a randomly initialized neural network. Do winning tickets exist for LLMs in fine-tuning scenarios? How can we find such winning tickets? In this paper, we…
Forecast of football outcomes in terms of Home Win, Draw and Away Win relies largely on ex ante probability elicitation of these events and ex post verification of them via computation of probability scoring rules (Brier, Ranked…
We characterize winning strategies in various infinite games involving filters on the natural numbers in terms of combinatorics or structural properties of the given filter. These generalize several ultrafilter games of Galvin.