相关论文: Marginalize, Rather than Impute: Probabilistic Win…

Machine learning models (e.g., neural networks) achieve high accuracy in wind power forecasting, but they are usually regarded as black boxes that lack interpretability. To address this issue, the paper proposes a glass-box approach that…

Inference problems with incomplete observations often aim at estimating population properties of unobserved quantities. One simple way to accomplish this estimation is to impute the unobserved quantities of interest at the individual level…

Building the conditional probability distribution of wind power forecast errors benefits both wind farms (WFs) and independent system operators (ISOs). Establishing the joint probability distribution of wind power and the corresponding…

Post-processing typically takes the outputs of a Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) model and applies linear statistical techniques to produce improve localized forecasts, by including additional observations, or determining systematic…

Precipitation data collected at sub-hourly resolution represents specific challenges for missing data recovery by being largely stochastic in nature and highly unbalanced in the duration of rain vs non-rain. Here we present a two-step…

Uncertainty analysis in the form of probabilistic forecasting can significantly improve decision making processes in the smart power grid when integrating renewable energy sources such as wind. Whereas point forecasting provides a single…

As climate change intensifies, the shift to cleaner energy sources becomes increasingly urgent. With wind energy production set to accelerate, reliable wind probabilistic forecasts are essential to ensure its efficient use. However, since…

Recently, there has been growing interest in the use of machine-learning methods for predicting solar flares. Initial efforts along these lines employed comparatively simple models, correlating features extracted from observations of…

When estimating a regression model, we might have data where some labels are missing, or our data might be biased by a selection mechanism. When the response or selection mechanism is ignorable (i.e., independent of the response variable…

The inferential models (IM) framework provides prior-free, frequency-calibrated, posterior probabilistic inference. The key is the use of random sets to predict unobservable auxiliary variables connected to the observable data and unknown…

Atmospheric models used for weather and climate prediction are traditionally formulated in a deterministic manner. In other words, given a particular state of the resolved scale variables, the most likely forcing from the sub-grid scale…

Clinical decision support using data mining techniques offers more intelligent way to reduce the decision error in the last few years. However, clinical datasets often suffer from high missingness, which adversely impacts the quality of…

Learning representations of data, and in particular learning features for a subsequent prediction task, has been a fruitful area of research delivering impressive empirical results in recent years. However, relatively little is understood…

Missing data is an important problem in machine learning practice. Starting from the premise that imputation methods should preserve the causal structure of the data, we develop a regularization scheme that encourages any baseline…

Wind energy is the leading non-hydro renewable technology. Increasing reliability is a key factor in reducing the downtime of high-power wind turbines installed in remote off-shore places, where maintenance is costly and less reactive.…

Accurate aircraft trajectory prediction (TP) in air traffic management systems is confounded by a number of epistemic uncertainties, dominated by uncertain meteorological conditions and operator specific procedures. Handling this…

Time-series forecasting plays an important role in many domains. Boosted by the advances in Deep Learning algorithms, it has for instance been used to predict wind power for eolic energy production, stock market fluctuations, or motor…

We consider multi-task regression models where the observations are assumed to be a linear combination of several latent node functions and weight functions, which are both drawn from Gaussian process priors. Driven by the problem of…

Nonparametric and machine learning methods are flexible methods for obtaining accurate predictions. Nowadays, data sets with a large number of predictors and complex structures are fairly common. In the presence of item nonresponse,…

Evaluation of treatment effects and more general estimands is typically achieved via parametric modelling, which is unsatisfactory since model misspecification is likely. Data-adaptive model building (e.g. statistical/machine learning) is…