相关论文: Stable Reduced-Rank VAR Identification

Vector autoregression (VAR) is a fundamental tool for modeling multivariate time series. However, as the number of component series is increased, the VAR model becomes overparameterized. Several authors have addressed this issue by…

As evidenced by various recent and significant papers within the frequentist literature, along with numerous applications in macroeconomics, genomics, and neuroscience, there continues to be substantial interest to understand the…

A new realized conditional autoregressive Value-at-Risk (VaR) framework is proposed, through incorporating a measurement equation into the original quantile regression model. The framework is further extended by employing various Expected…

This paper addresses the problem of state and parameter estimation for a class of second-order systems with single output. A new filtered transformation is proposed for the system via dynamic vector and matrix. In this method, the dynamics…

Vector autoregressive (VAR) models are popularly adopted for modelling high-dimensional time series, and their piecewise extensions allow for structural changes in the data. In VAR modelling, the number of parameters grow quadratically with…

In high-dimensional multivariate regression problems, enforcing low rank in the coefficient matrix offers effective dimension reduction, which greatly facilitates parameter estimation and model interpretation. However, commonly-used…

Motivated by Tucker tensor decomposition, this paper imposes low-rank structures to the column and row spaces of coefficient matrices in a multivariate infinite-order vector autoregression (VAR), which leads to a supervised factor model…

Modern technology often generates data with complex structures in which both response and explanatory variables are matrix-valued. Existing methods in the literature are able to tackle matrix-valued predictors but are rather limited for…

We propose a novel variational Bayes approach to estimate high-dimensional vector autoregression (VAR) models with hierarchical shrinkage priors. Our approach does not rely on a conventional structural VAR representation of the parameter…

We propose a pseudo-structural framework for analyzing contemporaneous co-movements in reduced-rank matrix autoregressive (RRMAR) models. Unlike conventional vector-autoregressive (VAR) models that would discard the matrix structure, our…

The Vector AutoRegressive (VAR) model is fundamental to the study of multivariate time series. Although VAR models are intensively investigated by many researchers, practitioners often show more interest in analyzing VARX models that…

The vector autoregressive (VAR) model has been widely used for modeling temporal dependence in a multivariate time series. For large (and even moderate) dimensions, the number of AR coefficients can be prohibitively large, resulting in…

The vector autoregressive (VAR) model has been used to describe the dependence within and across multiple time series. This is a model for stationary time series which can be extended to allow the presence of a deterministic trend in each…

High-dimensional settings, where the data dimension ($d$) far exceeds the number of observations ($n$), are common in many statistical and machine learning applications. Methods based on $\ell_1$-relaxation, such as Lasso, are very popular…

The availability of data on economic uncertainty sparked a lot of interest in models that can timely quantify episodes of international spillovers of uncertainty. This challenging task involves trading off estimation accuracy for more…

Several well-established benchmark predictors exist for Value-at-Risk (VaR), a major instrument for financial risk management. Hybrid methods combining AR-GARCH filtering with skewed-$t$ residuals and the extreme value theory-based approach…

A comprehensive methodology for inference in vector autoregressions (VARs) using sign and other structural restrictions is developed. The reduced-form VAR disturbances are driven by a few common factors and structural identification…

High-dimensional time series are a core ingredient of the statistical modeling toolkit, for which numerous estimation methods are known.But when observations are scarce or corrupted, the learning task becomes much harder.The question is:…

High dimensional Vector Autoregressions (VAR) have received a lot of interest recently due to novel applications in health, engineering, finance and the social sciences. Three issues arise when analyzing VAR's: (a) The high dimensional…

This article considers a stable vector autoregressive (VAR) model and investigates return predictability in a Bayesian context. The VAR system comprises asset returns and the dividend-price ratio as proposed in Cochrane (2008), and allows…