相关论文: An Elementary Predictor Obtaining $2\sqrt{T}+1$ Di…

Machine learning is about forecasting. When the forecasts come with an evaluation metric the forecasts become useful. What are reasonable evaluation metrics? How do existing evaluation metrics relate? In this work, we provide a general…

In the convex optimization approach to online regret minimization, many methods have been developed to guarantee a $O(\sqrt{T})$ bound on regret for subdifferentiable convex loss functions with bounded subgradients, by using a reduction to…

A new algorithm named EXPected Similarity Estimation (EXPoSE) was recently proposed to solve the problem of large-scale anomaly detection. It is a non-parametric and distribution free kernel method based on the Hilbert space embedding of…

Ensuring that predicted probabilities align with observed frequencies is critical in high-stakes domains such as clinical decision support, autonomous driving and financial risk assessment. Existing calibration methods typically apply a…

The calibration of predictive distributions has been widely studied in deep learning, but the same cannot be said about the more specific epistemic uncertainty as produced by Deep Ensembles, Bayesian Deep Networks, or Evidential Deep…

We consider an online two-stage stochastic optimization with long-term constraints over a finite horizon of $T$ periods. At each period, we take the first-stage action, observe a model parameter realization and then take the second-stage…

Confidence calibration -- the problem of predicting probability estimates representative of the true correctness likelihood -- is important for classification models in many applications. We discover that modern neural networks, unlike…

For constrained, not necessarily monotone submodular maximization, all known approximation algorithms with ratio greater than $1/e$ require continuous ideas, such as queries to the multilinear extension of a submodular function and its…

We study the problem of online monotone density estimation, where density estimators must be constructed in a predictable manner from sequentially observed data. We propose two online estimators: an online analogue of the classical…

We present two classical algorithms for the simulation of universal quantum circuits on $n$ qubits constructed from $c$ instances of Clifford gates and $t$ arbitrary-angle $Z$-rotation gates such as $T$ gates. Our algorithms complement each…

Parameters defined via General Estimating Equations (GEE) can be estimated by maximizing the Empirical Likelihood (EL). Newey and Smith (2004) have recently shown that this EL estimator exhibits desirable higher-order asymptotic properties,…

We consider the problem of learning a discrete distribution in the presence of an $\epsilon$ fraction of malicious data sources. Specifically, we consider the setting where there is some underlying distribution, $p$, and each data source…

Linear inverse problems are ubiquitous. Often the measurements do not follow a Gaussian distribution. Additionally, a model matrix with a large condition number can complicate the problem further by making it ill-posed. In this case, the…

Uncertainty is a fundamental aspect of real-world scenarios, where perfect information is rarely available. Humans naturally develop complex internal models to navigate incomplete data and effectively respond to unforeseen or partially…

When aggregating information from conflicting sources, one's goal is to find the truth. Most real-value \emph{truth discovery} (TD) algorithms try to achieve this goal by estimating the competence of each source and then aggregating the…

Calibrated predictions are useful because their numerical values can be interpreted as probabilities. Calibration errors are therefore widely used to evaluate, compare, and tune probabilistic predictors. Recently, Haghtalab et al. (2024)…

Probability estimation models play an important role in various fields, such as weather forecasting, recommendation systems, and sports analysis. Among several models estimating probabilities, it is difficult to evaluate which model gives…

Research has shown that deep networks tend to be overly optimistic about their predictions, leading to an underestimation of prediction errors. Due to the limited nature of data, existing studies have proposed various methods based on model…

Intuitively, unfamiliarity should lead to lack of confidence. In reality, current algorithms often make highly confident yet wrong predictions when faced with relevant but unfamiliar examples. A classifier we trained to recognize gender is…

To evaluate the calibration of a disease risk prediction tool, the quantity $E/O$, i.e., the ratio of the expected number of events to the observed number of events, is generally computed. However, because of censoring, or more precisely…