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This paper considers uncertainty quantification for an elliptic nonlocal equation. In particular, it is assumed that the parameters which define the kernel in the nonlocal operator are uncertain and a priori distributed according to a…

统计计算 · 统计学 2016-03-22 Ajay Jasra , Kody Law , Yan Zhou

Physics-Informed Neural Networks (PINNs) have been widely used to obtain solutions to various physical phenomena modeled as Differential Equations. As PINNs are not naturally equipped with mechanisms for Uncertainty Quantification, some…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-06-05 Pablo Flores , Olga Graf , Pavlos Protopapas , Karim Pichara

Graph Neural Networks (GNNs) have emerged as a prominent class of data-driven methods for molecular property prediction. However, a key limitation of typical GNN models is their inability to quantify uncertainties in the predictions. This…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-07-02 Shengli Jiang , Shiyi Qin , Reid C. Van Lehn , Prasanna Balaprakash , Victor M. Zavala

Predictive geometric models deliver excellent results for many Machine Learning use cases. Despite their undoubted performance, neural predictive algorithms can show unexpected degrees of instability and variance, particularly when applied…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2018-07-20 Michaela Regneri , Malte Hoffmann , Jurij Kost , Niklas Pietsch , Timo Schulz , Sabine Stamm

We propose, and illustrate via a neural network example, two different approaches to coarse-graining large heterogeneous networks. Both approaches are inspired from, and use tools developed in, methods for uncertainty quantification in…

适应与自组织系统 · 物理学 2016-11-03 Minseok Choi , Tom Bertalan , Carlo R. Laing , Ioannis G. Kevrekidis

This work investigates the detection of instabilities that may occur when utilizing deep learning models for image reconstruction tasks. Although neural networks often empirically outperform traditional reconstruction methods, their usage…

图像与视频处理 · 电气工程与系统科学 2020-03-31 Jan Macdonald , Maximilian März , Luis Oala , Wojciech Samek

Complex turbulent flow simulations are an integral aspect of the engineering design process. The mainstay of these simulations is represented by eddy viscosity based turbulence models. Eddy viscosity models are computationally cheap due to…

流体动力学 · 物理学 2024-08-14 Minghan Chu , Weicheng Qian

The modeling and uncertainty quantification of closed curves is an important problem in the field of shape analysis, and can have significant ramifications for subsequent statistical tasks. Many of these tasks involve collections of closed…

机器学习 · 统计学 2023-03-15 Hengrui Luo , Justin D. Strait

Uncertainty quantification is crucial in time series prediction, and quantile regression offers a valuable mechanism for uncertainty quantification which is useful for extreme value forecasting. Although deep learning models have been…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-11-26 Jimmy Cheung , Smruthi Rangarajan , Amelia Maddocks , Xizhe Chen , Rohitash Chandra

Estimating how uncertain an AI system is in its predictions is important to improve the safety of such systems. Uncertainty in predictive can result from uncertainty in model parameters, irreducible data uncertainty and uncertainty due to…

机器学习 · 统计学 2018-12-03 Andrey Malinin , Mark Gales

Mode shape information play the essential role in deciding the spatial pattern of vibratory response of a structure. The uncertainty quantification of mode shape, i.e., predicting mode shape variation when the structure is subjected to…

数据分析、统计与概率 · 物理学 2020-02-24 Kai Zhou , Jiong Tang

Bayesian inference allows us to define a posterior distribution over the weights of a generic neural network (NN). Exact posteriors are usually intractable, in which case approximations can be employed. One such approximation - variational…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2026-01-30 Andrew Millard , Joshua Murphy , Peter Green , Simon Maskell

In the presence of modeling errors, the mainstream Bayesian methods seldom give a realistic account of uncertainties as they commonly underestimate the inherent variability of parameters. This problem is not due to any misconception in the…

应用统计 · 统计学 2020-05-19 Omid Sedehi , Costas Papadimitriou , Lambros S. Katafygiotis

Sequential Monte Carlo (SMC) methods offer a principled approach to Bayesian uncertainty quantification but are traditionally limited by the need for full-batch gradient evaluations. We introduce a scalable variant by incorporating…

机器学习 · 统计学 2025-05-20 Andrew Millard , Zheng Zhao , Joshua Murphy , Simon Maskell

Graph combinatorial optimization problems are widely applicable and notoriously difficult to compute; for example, consider the traveling salesman or facility location problems. In this paper, we explore the feasibility of using…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-07-22 Randy Davila

Deep learning models have demonstrated remarkable success in various fields, including seismology. However, one major challenge in deep learning is the presence of mislabeled examples. Additionally, accurately estimating model uncertainty…

Numerous studies have focused on learning and understanding the dynamics of physical systems from video data, such as spatial intelligence. Artificial intelligence requires quantitative assessments of the uncertainty of the model to ensure…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2024-12-18 Aoming Liang , Qi Liu , Lei Xu , Fahad Sohrab , Weicheng Cui , Changhui Song , Moncef Gabbouj

Despite the huge success of deep neural networks (NNs), finding good mechanisms for quantifying their prediction uncertainty is still an open problem. Bayesian neural networks are one of the most popular approaches to uncertainty…

机器学习 · 统计学 2020-01-01 Agustinus Kristiadi , Sina Däubener , Asja Fischer

We present the Incremental Generative Monte Carlo (IGMC) method, designed to measure uncertainty in deep neural networks using deep generative approaches. IGMC iteratively trains generative models, adding their output to the dataset, to…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2023-10-17 Yunsheng Zhang

Reliable predictive uncertainty estimation plays an important role in enabling the deployment of neural networks to safety-critical settings. A popular approach for estimating the predictive uncertainty of neural networks is to define a…

机器学习 · 统计学 2023-12-29 Tim G. J. Rudner , Zonghao Chen , Yee Whye Teh , Yarin Gal