相关论文: AI-Augmented Predictions: LLM Assistants Improve H…

This study investigates the forecasting accuracy of human experts versus Large Language Models (LLMs) in the retail sector, particularly during standard and promotional sales periods. Utilizing a controlled experimental setup with 123 human…

Large language models (LLMs) have the potential to aid and improve human decision-making in classification tasks, not only by providing fairly accurate predictions, but also in their ability to generate cogent narrative explanations of…

Large language models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable capabilities across diverse tasks, but their ability to forecast future events remains understudied. A year ago, large language models struggle to come close to the accuracy of a…

AI-assisted decision making becomes increasingly prevalent, yet individuals often fail to utilize AI-based decision aids appropriately especially when the AI explanations are absent, potentially as they do not %understand reflect on AI's…

Large Language Models (LLMs) have shown capabilities close to human performance in various analytical tasks, leading researchers to use them for time and labor-intensive analyses. However, their capability to handle highly specialized and…

Human forecasting accuracy in practice relies on the 'wisdom of the crowd' effect, in which predictions about future events are significantly improved by aggregating across a crowd of individual forecasters. Past work on the forecasting…

Artificial intelligence is reshaping labor markets, yet we lack tools to systematically forecast its effects on employment. This paper introduces a benchmark for evaluating how well large language models (LLMs) can anticipate changes in job…

State of the art large language models (LLMs) have shown impressive performance on a variety of benchmark tasks and are increasingly used as components in larger applications, where LLM-based predictions serve as proxies for human…

Structured deliberation has been found to improve the performance of human forecasters. This study investigates whether a similar intervention, i.e. allowing LLMs to review each other's forecasts before updating, can improve accuracy in…

Forecasting future events is important for policy and decision making. In this work, we study whether language models (LMs) can forecast at the level of competitive human forecasters. Towards this goal, we develop a retrieval-augmented LM…

Large language models (LLMs) are revolutionizing every aspect of society. They are increasingly used in problem-solving tasks to substitute human assessment and reasoning. LLMs are trained on what humans write and are thus exposed to human…

We investigate whether large language models (LLMs) can predict whether they will succeed on a given task and whether their predictions improve as they progress through multi-step tasks. We also investigate whether LLMs can learn from…

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated their capabilities across various tasks, from language translation to complex reasoning. Understanding and predicting human behavior and biases are crucial for artificial intelligence (AI)…

Large Language Models (LLMs) are transforming human decision-making by acting as cognitive collaborators. Yet, this promise comes with a paradox: while LLMs can improve accuracy, they may also erode independent reasoning, promote…

Although large language models (LLMs) have been assessed for general medical knowledge using licensing exams, their ability to support clinical decision-making, such as selecting medical calculators, remains uncertain. We assessed nine…

Advances in deep learning systems have allowed large models to match or surpass human accuracy on a number of skills such as image classification, basic programming, and standardized test taking. As the performance of the most capable…

This study explores the potential of large language models (LLMs) to enhance expert forecasting through ensemble learning. Leveraging the European Central Bank's Survey of Professional Forecasters (SPF) dataset, we propose a comprehensive…

Many recent papers have studied the development of superforecaster-level event forecasting LLMs. While methodological problems with early studies cast doubt on the use of LLMs for event forecasting, recent studies with improved evaluation…

Large language models (LLMs) have been proposed as alternatives to human experts for estimating unknown quantities with associated uncertainty, a process known as Bayesian elicitation. We test this by asking eleven LLMs to estimate…

With the widespread adoption of Large Language Models (LLMs), there is a growing need to establish best practices for leveraging their capabilities beyond traditional natural language tasks. In this paper, a novel cross-domain knowledge…