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Large language models (LLMs) excel at numerical estimation but struggle to correctly quantify uncertainty. We study how well LLMs construct confidence intervals around their own answers and find that they are systematically overconfident.…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-11-03 Elliot L. Epstein , John Winnicki , Thanawat Sornwanee , Rajat Dwaraknath

Large Language Models (LLMs) are known to produce very high-quality tests and responses to our queries. But how much can we trust this generated text? In this paper, we study the problem of uncertainty quantification in LLMs. We propose a…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2025-04-28 Muhammad Mubashar , Shireen Kudukkil Manchingal , Fabio Cuzzolin

Large language models (LLMs) have been found to produce hallucinations when the question exceeds their internal knowledge boundaries. A reliable model should have a clear perception of its knowledge boundaries, providing correct answers…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2024-08-20 Shiyu Ni , Keping Bi , Lulu Yu , Jiafeng Guo

Recent advances in natural language processing (NLP) have opened up greater opportunities to enable fine-tuned large language models (LLMs) to behave as more powerful interactive agents through improved instruction-following ability.…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-10-27 Jerry Huang , Peng Lu , Qiuhao Zeng

Large language models (LLMs) are revolutionizing every aspect of society. They are increasingly used in problem-solving tasks to substitute human assessment and reasoning. LLMs are trained on what humans write and are thus exposed to human…

软件工程 · 计算机科学 2025-10-14 Fengfei Sun , Ningke Li , Kailong Wang , Lorenz Goette

Large language models (LLMs) achieve strong average performance yet remain unreliable at the instance level, with frequent hallucinations, brittle failures, and poorly calibrated confidence. We study reliability through the lens of…

人工智能 · 计算机科学 2026-01-13 Pranav Kallem

Language and Vision-Language Models (LLMs/VLMs) have revolutionized the field of AI by their ability to generate human-like text and understand images, but ensuring their reliability is crucial. This paper aims to evaluate the ability of…

计算机视觉与模式识别 · 计算机科学 2024-05-07 Tobias Groot , Matias Valdenegro-Toro

Recently, overconfidence in large language models (LLMs) has garnered considerable attention due to its fundamental importance in quantifying the trustworthiness of LLM generation. However, existing approaches prompt the \textit{black box…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2025-04-29 Adil Bahaj , Hamed Rahimi , Mohamed Chetouani , Mounir Ghogho

A critical component in the trustworthiness of LLMs is reliable uncertainty communication, yet LLMs often use assertive language when conveying false claims, leading to over-reliance and eroded trust. We present the first systematic study…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2025-10-03 Gabrielle Kaili-May Liu , Gal Yona , Avi Caciularu , Idan Szpektor , Tim G. J. Rudner , Arman Cohan

The rise of large language models (LLMs) and their tight integration into our daily life make it essential to dedicate efforts towards their trustworthiness. Uncertainty quantification for LLMs can establish more human trust into their…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2026-05-06 Daniel Yang , Yao-Hung Hubert Tsai , Makoto Yamada

The tendency of Large Language Models (LLMs) to generate hallucinations raises concerns regarding their reliability. Therefore, confidence estimations indicating the extent of trustworthiness of the generations become essential. However,…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2025-05-27 Boyang Xue , Hongru Wang , Rui Wang , Sheng Wang , Zezhong Wang , Yiming Du , Bin Liang , Wenxuan Zhang , Kam-Fai Wong

We posit that large language models (LLMs) should be capable of expressing their intrinsic uncertainty in natural language. For example, if the LLM is equally likely to output two contradicting answers to the same question, then its…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2024-09-27 Gal Yona , Roee Aharoni , Mor Geva

The tendency of Large Language Models (LLMs) to generate hallucinations raises concerns regarding their reliability. Therefore, confidence estimations indicating the extent of trustworthiness of the generations become essential. However,…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2024-10-21 Boyang Xue , Hongru Wang , Rui Wang , Sheng Wang , Zezhong Wang , Yiming Du , Bin Liang , Kam-Fai Wong

Large Language Models (LLMs) can correct their self-generated responses, but a decline in accuracy after self-correction is also witnessed. To have a deeper understanding of self-correction, we endeavor to decompose, evaluate, and analyze…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2024-12-30 Zhe Yang , Yichang Zhang , Yudong Wang , Ziyao Xu , Junyang Lin , Zhifang Sui

Large Language Models (LLMs) have demonstrated remarkable self-improvement capabilities, whereby models iteratively revise their outputs through self-generated feedback. While this reflective mechanism has shown promise in enhancing task…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2025-04-07 Liangjie Huang , Dawei Li , Huan Liu , Lu Cheng

Large language models (LLMs) are widely deployed as general-purpose problem solvers, making accurate confidence estimation critical for reliable use. Prior work on LLM calibration largely focuses on response-level confidence, which…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2026-02-17 Sin-Han Yang , Cheng-Kuang Wu , Chieh-Yen Lin , Yun-Nung Chen , Hung-yi Lee , Shao-Hua Sun

Large language models (LLMs), such as ChatGPT, are able to generate human-like, fluent responses for many downstream tasks, e.g., task-oriented dialog and question answering. However, applying LLMs to real-world, mission-critical…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2023-03-10 Baolin Peng , Michel Galley , Pengcheng He , Hao Cheng , Yujia Xie , Yu Hu , Qiuyuan Huang , Lars Liden , Zhou Yu , Weizhu Chen , Jianfeng Gao

Large Language Models (LLMs) have achieved remarkable success across a wide range of natural language tasks, but often exhibit overconfidence and generate plausible yet incorrect answers. This overconfidence, especially in models undergone…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2025-12-24 Zeguan Xiao , Diyang Dou , Boya Xiong , Yun Chen , Guanhua Chen

Large language models (LLMs) often suffer from hallucinations, posing significant challenges for real-world applications. Confidence calibration, as an effective indicator of hallucination, is thus essential to enhance the trustworthiness…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2025-11-21 Caiqi Zhang , Ruihan Yang , Zhisong Zhang , Xinting Huang , Sen Yang , Dong Yu , Nigel Collier

Large Language Models (LLMs) are increasingly deployed in high-stakes domains such as science, law, and healthcare, where accurate expressions of uncertainty are essential for reliability and trust. However, current LLMs are often observed…

计算与语言 · 计算机科学 2025-11-26 Yibo Li , Miao Xiong , Jiaying Wu , Bryan Hooi