相关论文: Invariant Causal Prediction with Local Models

We consider the problem of assessing whether, in an individual case, there is a causal relationship between an observed exposure and a response variable. When data are available on similar individuals we may be able to estimate prospective…

The problem of individualized prediction can be addressed using variants of conformal prediction, obtaining the intervals to which the actual values of the variables of interest belong. Here we present a method based on detecting the…

Learning causal relationships among a set of variables, as encoded by a directed acyclic graph, from observational data is complicated by the presence of unobserved confounders. Instrumental variables (IVs) are a popular remedy for this…

Current causal discovery approaches require restrictive model assumptions in the absence of interventional data to ensure structure identifiability. These assumptions often do not hold in real-world applications leading to a loss of…

Nonlinear dynamical systems are ubiquitous in nature and they are hard to forecast. Not only they may be sensitive to small perturbations in their initial conditions, but they are often composed of processes acting at multiple scales.…

We introduce a unified framework for contextual and causal Bayesian optimisation, which aims to design intervention policies maximising the expectation of a target variable. Our approach leverages both observed contextual information and…

Causal effect estimation is a critical task in statistical learning that aims to find the causal effect on subjects by identifying causal links between a number of predictor (or, explanatory) variables and the outcome of a treatment. In a…

Causal inference is the process of estimating the effect or impact of a treatment on an outcome with other covariates as potential confounders (and mediators) that may need to be controlled. The vast majority of existing methods and systems…

Granger causality is widely used for causal structure discovery in complex systems from multivariate time series data. Traditional Granger causality tests based on linear models often fail to detect even mild non-linear causal…

Healthcare data often come from multiple sites in which the correlations between confounding variables can vary widely. If deep learning models exploit these unstable correlations, they might fail catastrophically in unseen sites. Although…

Identifying the causal pathways of unfairness is a critical objective for improving policy design and algorithmic decision-making. Prior work in causal fairness analysis often requires knowledge of the causal graph, hindering practical…

This article presents a novel method for causal discovery with generalized structural equation models suited for analyzing diverse types of outcomes, including discrete, continuous, and mixed data. Causal discovery often faces challenges…

Many natural phenomena are intrinsically causal. The discovery of the cause-effect relationships implicit in these processes can help us to understand and describe them more effectively, which boils down to causal discovery about the data…

Causal representation learning is the task of identifying the underlying causal variables and their relations from high-dimensional observations, such as images. Recent work has shown that one can reconstruct the causal variables from…

Causal representation learning aims at identifying high-level causal variables from perceptual data. Most methods assume that all latent causal variables are captured in the high-dimensional observations. We instead consider a partially…

Invariant Causal Prediction (Peters et al., 2016) is a technique for out-of-distribution generalization which assumes that some aspects of the data distribution vary across the training set but that the underlying causal mechanisms remain…

This paper introduces a new framework for recovering causal graphs from observational data, leveraging the observation that the distribution of an effect, conditioned on its causes, remains invariant to changes in the prior distribution of…

We propose a novel machine learning approach for inferring causal variables of a target variable from observations. Our focus is on directly inferring a set of causal factors without requiring full causal graph reconstruction, which is…

Drawbacks of ignoring the causal mechanisms when performing imitation learning have recently been acknowledged. Several approaches both to assess the feasibility of imitation and to circumvent causal confounding and causal misspecifications…

How should researchers analyze randomized experiments in which the main outcome is latent and measured in multiple ways but each measure contains some degree of error? We first identify a critical study-specific noncomparability problem in…