相关论文: Streaming Bayesian Modeling for predicting Fat-Tai…

Financial time-series classification (FTC) is extremely valuable for investment management. In past decades, it draws a lot of attention from a wide extent of research areas, especially Artificial Intelligence (AI). Existing researches…

Jump stochastic volatility models are central to financial econometrics for volatility forecasting, portfolio risk management, and derivatives pricing. Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are computationally unfeasible for the…

In the context of a motivating study of dynamic network flow data on a large-scale e-commerce web site, we develop Bayesian models for on-line/sequential analysis for monitoring and adapting to changes reflected in node-node traffic. For…

Federated learning makes it possible to train a machine learning model on decentralized data. Bayesian networks are probabilistic graphical models that have been widely used in artificial intelligence applications. Their popularity stems…

Long-term time series forecasting (LTSF) is a crucial aspect of modern society, playing a pivotal role in facilitating long-term planning and developing early warning systems. While many Transformer-based models have recently been…

Real-world networks are generally claimed to be scale-free, meaning that the degree distributions follow the classical power-law, at least asymptotically. Yet, closer observation shows that the classical power-law distribution is often…

Time series analysis is critical for emerging net- work intelligent control and management functions. However, existing statistical-based and shallow machine learning models have shown limited prediction capabilities on multivariate time…

Active learning seeks to reduce the amount of data required to fit the parameters of a model, thus forming an important class of techniques in modern machine learning. However, past work on active learning has largely overlooked latent…

In real-world scenarios, data tends to exhibit a long-tailed distribution, which increases the difficulty of training deep networks. In this paper, we propose a novel self-paced knowledge distillation framework, termed Learning From…

We demonstrate that a number of sociology models for social network dynamics can be viewed as continuous time Bayesian networks (CTBNs). A sampling-based approximate inference method for CTBNs can be used as the basis of an…

Bayesian approaches to clinical analyses for the purposes of patient phenotyping have been limited by the computational challenges associated with applying the Markov-Chain Monte-Carlo (MCMC) approach to large real-world data. Approximate…

The analysis of longitudinal categorical data can be complex and unfeasible due to the number of parameters involved, characterised by overparameterisation leading to model non-convergence, in addition to problems related to sample size and…

Latent space models (LSM) for network data were introduced by Hoff et al. (2002) under the basic assumption that each node of the network has an unknown position in a D-dimensional Euclidean latent space: generally the smaller the distance…

Long-term time series forecasting (LTSF) offers broad utility in practical settings like energy consumption and weather prediction. Accurately predicting long-term changes, however, is demanding due to the intricate temporal patterns and…

Making accurate motion prediction of surrounding agents such as pedestrians and vehicles is a critical task when robots are trying to perform autonomous navigation tasks. Recent research on multi-modal trajectory prediction, including…

Predicting the popularity of online videos is important for video streaming content providers. This is a challenging problem because of the following two reasons. First, the problem is both "wide" and "deep". That is, it not only depends on…

Taxi demand prediction is an important building block to enabling intelligent transportation systems in a smart city. An accurate prediction model can help the city pre-allocate resources to meet travel demand and to reduce empty taxis on…

Large Language Models (LLMs) excel at understanding context and qualitative nuances but struggle with the rigorous and transparent reasoning required in high-stakes quantitative domains such as financial trading. We propose a model-first…

Logic regression was developed more than a decade ago as a tool to construct predictors from Boolean combinations of binary covariates. It has been mainly used to model epistatic effects in genetic association studies, which is very…

This paper describes a family of seasonal and non-seasonal time series models that can be viewed as generalisations of additive and multiplicative exponential smoothing models, to model series that grow faster than linear but slower than…