相关论文: Reconciliation of expert priors for quantities and…

In order to improve forecasts, a decisionmaker often combines probabilities given by various sources, such as human experts and machine learning classifiers. When few training data are available, aggregation can be improved by incorporating…

Combining the outputs of multiple classifiers or experts into a single probabilistic classification is a fundamental task in machine learning with broad applications from classifier fusion to expert opinion pooling. Here we present a…

Combining distributions is an important issue in decision theory and Bayesian inference. Logarithmic pooling is a popular method to aggregate expert opinions by using a set of weights that reflect the reliability of each information source.…

A central characteristic of Bayesian statistics is the ability to consistently incorporate prior knowledge into various modeling processes. In this paper, we focus on translating domain expert knowledge into corresponding prior…

A method for aggregation of expert estimates in small groups is proposed. The method is based on combinatorial approach to decomposition of pair-wise comparison matrices and to processing of expert data. It also uses the basic principles of…

Bayesian optimization has been successfully applied throughout Chemical Engineering for the optimization of functions that are expensive-to-evaluate, or where gradients are not easily obtainable. However, domain experts often possess…

Belief updating in Bayes nets, a well known computationally hard problem, has recently been approximated by several deterministic algorithms, and by various randomized approximation algorithms. Deterministic algorithms usually provide…

We introduce a dynamic approach to probabilistic forecast reconciliation at scale. Our model differs from the existing literature in this area in several important ways. Firstly we explicitly allow the weights allocated to the base…

There has recently been considerable interest in addressing the problem of unifying distributed statistical analyses into a single coherent inference. This problem naturally arises in a number of situations, including in big-data settings,…

Hierarchical time series are common in several applied fields. The forecasts for these time series are required to be coherent, that is, to satisfy the constraints given by the hierarchy. The most popular technique to enforce coherence is…

Counterfactual explanations utilize feature perturbations to analyze the outcome of an original decision and recommend an actionable recourse. We argue that it is beneficial to provide several alternative explanations rather than a single…

Bayesian entity resolution merges together multiple, noisy databases and returns the minimal collection of unique individuals represented, together with their true, latent record values. Bayesian methods allow flexible generative models…

In computational inverse problems, it is common that a detailed and accurate forward model is approximated by a computationally less challenging substitute. The model reduction may be necessary to meet constraints in computing time when…

Subjective Bayesian prior distributions elicited from experts can be aggregated together to form group priors. This paper compares aggregated priors formed by Equal Weight Aggregation, the Classical Method, and the Sheffield Elicitation…

The problem of assigning probability distributions which objectively reflect the prior information available about experiments is one of the major stumbling blocks in the use of Bayesian methods of data analysis. In this paper the method of…

Background: The uptake of formalized prior elicitation from experts in Bayesian clinical trials has been limited due to challenges such as complex statistical modeling, lack of practical tools, and the cognitive burden placed on experts…

We present a novel approach for reconciling hierarchical forecasts, based on Bayes rule. We define a prior distribution for the bottom time series of the hierarchy, based on the bottom base forecasts. Then we update their distribution via…

We propose the application of iterative regularization for the development of ensemble methods for solving Bayesian inverse problems. In concrete, we construct (i) a variational iterative regularizing ensemble Levenberg-Marquardt method…

Deep ensembles can be considered as the current state-of-the-art for uncertainty quantification in deep learning. While the approach was originally proposed as a non-Bayesian technique, arguments supporting its Bayesian footing have been…

Domain experts often possess valuable physical insights that are overlooked in fully automated decision-making processes such as Bayesian optimisation. In this article we apply high-throughput (batch) Bayesian optimisation alongside…