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The synthetic control method offers a way to quantify the effect of an intervention using weighted averages of untreated units to approximate the counterfactual outcome that the treated unit(s) would have experienced in the absence of the…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-10-12 Matias D. Cattaneo , Yingjie Feng , Filippo Palomba , Rocio Titiunik

To infer the treatment effect for a single treated unit using panel data, synthetic control methods construct a linear combination of control units' outcomes that mimics the treated unit's pre-treatment outcome trajectory. This linear…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2024-05-07 Hongxiang Qiu , Xu Shi , Wang Miao , Edgar Dobriban , Eric Tchetgen Tchetgen

As an alternative to synthetic control, the distributional Synthetic Control (DSC) proposed by Gunsilius (2023) provides estimates for quantile treatment effect and thus enabling researchers to comprehensively understand the impact of…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2026-05-12 Lu Zhang , Xiaomeng Zhang , Xinyu Zhang

Understanding the effect of a particular treatment or a policy pertains to many areas of interest, ranging from political economics, marketing to healthcare. In this paper, we develop a non-parametric algorithm for detecting the effects of…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2022-08-24 Davide Viviano , Jelena Bradic

In the new era of personalization, learning the heterogeneous treatment effect (HTE) becomes an inevitable trend with numerous applications. Yet, most existing HTE estimation methods focus on independently and identically distributed…

机器学习 · 统计学 2023-01-31 Ye Shen , Runzhe Wan , Hengrui Cai , Rui Song

The synthetic control method (SCM) allows estimating the causal effect of an intervention in settings where panel data on a small number of treated and control units are available. We show that the existing SCM, as well as its extensions,…

应用统计 · 统计学 2022-05-20 Giovanni Mellace , Alessandra Pasquini

Estimating weights in the synthetic control method, typically resulting in sparse weights where only a few control units have non-zero weights, involves an optimization procedure that selects and combines control units to closely match the…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2026-02-03 Rong J. B. Zhu

The synthetic control method (SCM) has become a popular tool for estimating causal effects in policy evaluation, where a single treated unit is observed, and a heterogeneous set of untreated units with pre- and post-policy change data are…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-08-21 Jizhou Liu , Eric J. Tchetgen Tchetgen , Carlos Varjão

The average treatment effect on the treated (ATT) in a staggered-adoption panel is estimated using an intercept-augmented synthetic-control (SCM) estimator. A weighted parallel trends plus an intercept shift, together with mild regularity…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2025-08-08 Michael Guggisberg

The synthetic difference-in-differences method provides an efficient method to estimate a causal effect with a latent factor model. However, it relies on the use of panel data. This paper presents an adaptation of the synthetic…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2024-10-01 Yoann Morin

Estimation and inference procedures for synthetic control methods often do not allow for the existence of spillover effects, which are plausible in many applications. In this paper, we consider estimation and inference for synthetic control…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2026-01-23 Jianfei Cao , Connor Dowd

We propose a generalization of the synthetic control and interventions methods to the setting with dynamic treatment effects. We consider the estimation of unit-specific treatment effects from panel data collected under a general treatment…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2025-10-03 Anish Agarwal , Sukjin Han , Dwaipayan Saha , Vasilis Syrgkanis , Haeyeon Yoon

In a seminal paper Abadie, Diamond, and Hainmueller [2010] (ADH), see also Abadie and Gardeazabal [2003], Abadie et al. [2014], develop the synthetic control procedure for estimating the effect of a treatment, in the presence of a single…

应用统计 · 统计学 2017-09-21 Nikolay Doudchenko , Guido W. Imbens

We investigate the optimal design of experimental studies that have pre-treatment outcome data available. The average treatment effect is estimated as the difference between the weighted average outcomes of the treated and control units. A…

Iterative Synthetic Control Method is introduced in this study, a modification of the Synthetic Control Method (SCM) designed to improve its predictive performance by utilizing control units affected by the treatment in question. This…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2024-05-06 Andrii Melnychuk

This paper proposes a novel approach for estimating treatment effects in panel data settings, addressing key limitations of the standard difference-in-differences (DID) approach. The standard approach relies on the parallel trends…

计量经济学 · 经济学 2026-01-14 Shoya Ishimaru

In causal inference with observational studies, synthetic control (SC) has emerged as a prominent tool. SC has traditionally been applied to aggregate-level datasets, but more recent work has extended its use to individual-level data. As…

机器学习 · 计算机科学 2025-03-28 Saeyoung Rho , Andrew Tang , Noah Bergam , Rachel Cummings , Vishal Misra

Quantifying cause and effect relationships is an important problem in many domains. The gold standard solution is to conduct a randomised controlled trial. However, in many situations such trials cannot be performed. In the absence of such…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2023-01-19 Jakob Zeitler , Athanasios Vlontzos , Ciaran M. Gilligan-Lee

Mixed-frequency data, where variables are observed at different temporal resolutions, commonly occur in economic and financial studies. Classical synthetic control methods (SCM) are ill-suited for such data, often necessitating aggregation…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2026-05-13 Lu Zhang , Shijin Gong , Xinyu Zhang

We consider estimation and inference in panel data models with additive unobserved individual specific heterogeneity in a high dimensional setting. The setting allows the number of time varying regressors to be larger than the sample size.…

统计方法学 · 统计学 2017-10-05 Alexandre Belloni , Victor Chernozhukov , Christian Hansen , Damian Kozbur