相关论文: Measure of Dependence for Financial Time-Series

Study of time series data often involves measuring the strength of temporal dependence, on which statistical properties like consistency and central limit theorem are built. Historically, various dependence measures have been proposed. In…

This short note suggests a heuristic method for detecting the dependence of random time series that can be used in the case when this dependence is relatively weak and such that the traditional methods are not effective. The method requires…

For the challenging task of modeling multivariate time series, we propose a new class of models that use dependent Mat\'ern processes to capture the underlying structure of data, explain their interdependencies, and predict their unknown…

Time series modelling is essential for solving tasks such as predictive maintenance, quality control and optimisation. Deep learning is widely used for solving such problems. When managing complex manufacturing process with neural networks,…

Conditional independence testing is a key problem required by many machine learning and statistics tools. In particular, it is one way of evaluating the usefulness of some features on a supervised prediction problem. We propose a novel…

Performance estimation aims at estimating the loss that a predictive model will incur on unseen data. These procedures are part of the pipeline in every machine learning project and are used for assessing the overall generalisation ability…

This paper introduces a novel methodology that utilizes latency to unveil time-series dependence patterns. A customized statistical test detects memory dependence in event sequences by analyzing their inter-event time distributions.…

This paper considers a general class of nonparametric time series regression models where the regression function can be time-dependent. We establish an asymptotic theory for estimates of the time-varying regression functions. For this…

Literature highlighted that financial time series data pose significant challenges for accurate stock price prediction, because these data are characterized by noise and susceptibility to news; traditional statistical methodologies made…

An approach is presented for making predictions about functional time series. The method is applied to data coming from periodically correlated processes and electricity demand, obtaining accurate point forecasts and narrow prediction bands…

Many planning and decision activities in logistics and supply chain management are based on forecasts of multiple time dependent factors. Therefore, the quality of planning depends on the quality of the forecasts. We compare various…

High dimensional time series datasets are becoming increasingly common in various fields such as economics, finance, meteorology, and neuroscience. Given this ubiquity of time series data, it is surprising that very few works on variable…

Measuring the statistical dependence between observed signals is a primary tool for scientific discovery. However, biological systems often exhibit complex non-linear interactions that currently cannot be captured without a priori knowledge…

Time series prediction is a widespread and well studied problem with applications in many domains (medical, geoscience, network analysis, finance, econometry etc.). In the case of multivariate time series, the key to good performances is to…

Time series forecasting is important across various domains for decision-making. In particular, financial time series such as stock prices can be hard to predict as it is difficult to model short-term and long-term temporal dependencies…

We present data-dependent learning bounds for the general scenario of non-stationary non-mixing stochastic processes. Our learning guarantees are expressed in terms of a data-dependent measure of sequential complexity and a discrepancy…

Discrimination between non-stationarity and long-range dependency is a difficult and long-standing issue in modelling financial time series. This paper uses an adaptive spectral technique which jointly models the non-stationarity and…

Time series data is prevalent in a wide variety of real-world applications and it calls for trustworthy and explainable models for people to understand and fully trust decisions made by AI solutions. We consider the problem of building…

Considering the difficulty of financial time series forecasting in financial aid, much of the current research focuses on leveraging big data analytics in financial services. One modern approach is to utilize "predictive analysis",…

Time series modeling for predictive purpose has been an active research area of machine learning for many years. However, no sufficiently comprehensive and meanwhile substantive survey was offered so far. This survey strives to meet this…